It’s that time of year again. The Academy Award nominations are finally out, and we can have a sigh of relief (if only for a moment). Plenty of narratives start to either thin out or embolden as we reach the back half of this awards season. Of course, when nomination morning happens, we see films perceived as legit Best Picture contenders falter in certain areas while others prove to be stronger than expected. So, it has to be asked: Which films are truly contending for a Best Picture win in this lineup of ten? After seeing today’s nominations, here are the films that have a realistic shot at going all the way to become this year’s Best Picture winner.
“Emilia Peréz” leads the pack with 13 nominations, making it the most nominated foreign language film of all time. With that many nominations, “Emilia Peréz” has cemented itself in an elite company alongside films like “Oppenheimer,” “The Shape of Water,” “From Here to Eternity” and many others. Selena Gomez missing a nomination for Best Supporting Actress is the only misstep in what was a near-perfect Oscar nomination morning. Still, “Emilia Peréz” earned nominations in key categories such as Best Directing, Best Adapted Screenplay, and Best Editing, which gives it all the fuel it needs to possibly pull off a Best Picture win. What keeps one from going all in on the “Emilia Perez” train is, unless it starts showing signs it will take an editing or screenplay win (or both), it’s hard to imagine how it will lead to Jacques Audiard and company across the finish line. Based on how it has performed throughout this season, the passion from the industry is more than apparent for “Emilia Peréz.” We’ll just have to wait and see how it plays out, especially with another awards juggernaut on its heels.
“The Brutalist” used all of its momentum from the Golden Globes to do exactly what it needed to on nomination morning, securing double-digit nominations. With 10 nominations, “The Brutalist” tied for the second most nominations alongside “Wicked,” continuing to steamroll this awards season. It could even be considered a slight overperformance since it made its way into the Best Editing lineup despite missing key mentions at ACE and BAFTA. The film, which is considered by many as a front-runner in key categories such as Best Director and Best Actor, is showing no signs of slowing down. A win in Best Picture is very much in sight for “The Brutalist,” as it’s revealing itself more than ever to be a potential spoiler for an “Emilia Peréz” victory.
After dominating at BAFTA with twelve nominations, “Conclave” underperformed to a degree with the Academy Awards. Many were surprised to see Edward Berger miss out on a Best Director nomination after landing at every single precursor this season. Cinematographer Stéphane Fontaine, who also had an excellent run this award season, missed out on a Best Cinematography nomination. Despite these misses, “Conclave” is still one of the few contenders for Best Picture, which earned nominations for editing and screenplay. The fact it could win both Best Editing and Best Adapted Screenplay bodes well for “Conclave,” which, as a whole, could play well on a preferential ballot due to its overall likeability being a common consensus among those who watch the film. It does seem like its Best Picture chances have been knocked down a peg, but the possibility is still there.
“Anora” hasn’t missed a beat all season – and Oscar voters were no different. The film earned six nominations and landed in every above-the-line category it was contending for. While six total nominations may seem a bit slight compared to its competition, “Anora“ is still one of the most critically lauded films of the year and is considered to be a front-runner for Best Original Screenplay. There is still a world where Mikey Madison could contend to win Best Actress, although that now seems to be in question with the rise of Demi Moore and the overall strength of “I’m Still Here,“ which only helps Fernanda Torres in Best Actress. If “Anora“ wins Original Screenplay, Best Actress, and Best Editing, then Best Picture will undoubtedly come along with it. For all we know, “Anora“ could just miss out to some of the previous films mentioned earlier and claim Best Original Screenplay as the film’s sole win.
Despite having a great nomination morning, it doesn’t seem that “A Complete Unknown“ and “Wicked“ are in the hunt to win Best Picture. Even though “Wicked“ tied for second in nominations with ten and earned a surprise editing nomination, it still missed key categories such as directing and writing. “A Complete Unknown,“ on the other hand, overperformed, earning a shocking nomination for James Mangold in Best Director, and the adoration for the film even helped a SAG-only nominated Monica Barbaro make her way into that Best Supporting Actress lineup. “A Complete Unknown“ landed in every above-the-line category it contended for and scored below-the-line nominations in Best Sound and Best Costume Design. The fact that it tied “Conclave“ with eight nominations shows its overall strength and proves that, in a year of only five Best Picture nominees, “A Complete Unknown“ would have for sure made it in that lineup. It’s hard to see either of these films contend for anything but acting and tech awards.
With a season as chaotic as this one, who knows what will happen? Plenty can happen from nomination morning to the Oscar ceremony; films to be perceived as strong can slowly wither away as the televised awards reveal their winners. One thing that’s for sure is that this isn’t last year, and Best Picture is anyone’s for the taking.
Is “Emilia Peréz“ going to steamroll its way to a Best Picture win? Will “The Brutalist“ be the spoiler to “Emila Peréz?“Are “Conclave“ or “Anora“ the films that benefit from the preferential ballot the most? Are we underestimating “A Complete Unknown?“ Please let us know in the comments below or on Next Best Picture’s X account, and be sure to check out Next Best Picture’s latest Oscar predictions here.
You can follow Giovanni and hear more of his thoughts on the Oscars & Film on X @TheGiovanniLago
