All the talk about the Emmys this year tends to lean toward a few conversations: will “The Pitt” repeat Outstanding Drama Series, can Jean Smart complete her perfect run, will “Hacks” go out on top, and will we finally be able to say “Emmy Award winner Harrison Ford?” But seeing several first-time nominees, particularly in the guest actor and actress categories, got me thinking – which of these first-time Emmy nominees could actually win? There are 28 first-time performer nominees (acting categories only) across 11 shows this year, so there’s a non-zero chance we’ll see someone have a perfect record at the Emmys. Who’s most likely to score their first victory on top of their first win come September?
Let’s look at the first-time nominees by show: to no surprise, “The Pitt” racked up 25 total nominations, 10 of which are first-time nominees: Tal Anderson, Patrick Ball, Taylor Dearden, Fiona Dourif, Ernest Harden Jr., Gerran Howell, Tina Ivlev, Jeff Kober, Sepideh Moafi, and self-submitted Brittany Allen. Most of these folks are competing against their costars in the same category: Patrick Ball and Gerran Howell in Supporting Actor; Taylor Dearden, Sepideh Moafi, and Fiona Dourif in Supporting Actress; Tal Anderson, Brittany Allen, and Tina Ivlev in Guest Actress; and Jeff Kober and Ernest Harden Jr. in Guest Actor. Basically, throw a dart in the supporting or guest categories, and you’ll hit a member of “The Pitt.” Of all of these first-time nominees, the likeliest for a win (in my opinion) are Jeff Kober and, to a lesser extent, Patrick Ball. Guest Actor in a Drama Series feels especially unpredictable this year, but Jeff Kober’s impact extends far beyond his six episodes of “The Pitt.” His presence threads through the entire season, serving as a driving force behind Dr. Robby’s emotional unraveling and giving his performance a resonance that far exceeds its short six-episode run. Compared to the impact of the other guest actor nominees in the category – Jeff Hiller for “Pluribus,” Jonathan Pryce for “Slow Horses,” Bradley Whitford for “The Diplomat,” his costar Ernest Harden Jr., and strongest competitor Colman Domingo for “Euphoria,” Kober’s on screen presence and the previous success of “The Pitt” could tip the scales his way come Emmy Sunday.
Patrick Ball, on the other hand, has much tougher competition. In fact, I don’t even have him as my pick to win Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama. He’s competing against fan favorite and last year’s Guest Actor in a Drama Series winner Shawn Hatosy, who moved up to Supporting this year, costar Gerran Howell, 2x Emmy winner Billy Crudup from “The Morning Show,” scene-stealer Tom Pelphrey from “Task,” longtime fan favorite Jack Lowden from “Slow Horses,” and Carlos-Manuel Vesga from Apple’s hit “Pluribus.” Billy Crudup’s two previous wins, plus a heavy emotional beat toward the end of the season, are awards-bait at worst, and 2x Emmy-winning at best, so I’m currently leaning toward another Crudup win, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Ball, Hatosy, or even Pelphrey pull it off either. Ball’s in the more popular show that’s likely winning Lead Actor, Actress, and Drama Series, so voters could easily reward it with another Supporting trophy.
There are a few shows that have three first-time Emmy nominees, and the best chances of wins are likely from “Hacks” and “Widow’s Bay.” “Hacks” got in three first-time nominees – and five nominees total – for Guest Actress in a Comedy with Leslie Bibb, Cherry Jones, and Lauren Weedman; plus another Weed, played by 2022 winner Laurie Metcalf and previous nominee Kaitlin Olson. While Laurie Metcalf had the most quotable lines of the season, Leslie Bibb had the meatiest role, likely leaving her in the lead position. On the “Widow’s Bay” side, there’s a buzzy new contender that could unseat Hannah Einbinder: Kate O’Flynn. “Widow’s Bay” overperformed in nominations, so there’s a chance O’Flynn captures the late-season surge and takes down frontrunners Einbinder and Michelle Pfeiffer for “Margo’s Got Money Troubles.” Dale Dickey and Hamish Linklater also received surprise nominations, but both are long shots, and a win would be just to get nominated for the new hit series.
Then there’s “Beef.” Cailee Spaeny’s omission is one of the most notable misses in this year’s nominations. Still, Carey Mulligan and Oscar Isaac remain well positioned to win Lead Actress and Lead Actor in a Limited Series. I’m not putting much weight into Yuh-Jung Youn’s nomination, likely in 4th or 5th place in the Supporting Actress in a Limited Series category. Charles Melton also has an uphill battle against David Harbour for “DTF St. Louis” and Richard Gadd for “Half Man,” but if the voters love “Beef” more than the other two shows (“Half Man” didn’t even get a Limited Series nomination), he could pull off a surprise win.
“Pluribus” is the other buzzy new series by Emmy favorite Vince Gilligan that racked up the noms. 18 nominations in total, three first-time nominees and Rhea Seehorn’s turn at finally getting an overdue trophy, “Pluribus” came on the scene hot this fall and has held TV’s attention ever since. The first-time nominees’ most deserving win is also it’s – Karolina Wydra is competing against last year’s winner Katherine LaNasa for “The Pitt.” Not to say that Miriam Shor and Carlos-Manuel Vesga aren’t long shots as first-time nominees themselves, but Katherine LaNasa stands out as one of the safest predictions of the year. Between the Television Academy’s well-established affection for “The Pitt” and the character’s much more prominent role this season, she’s about as close to a lock as a nominee can be.
Lastly, there’s a handful of single first-time nominees from various shows: Sarah Pidgeon from “Love Story,” Chase Infiniti from “The Testaments,” Charlie Hunnam from “Monster: The Ed Gein Story,” Joy Sunday from “DTF St. Louis,” Connor Storrie from “SNL,” and Matt Vogel from “The Muppet Show.” The best chance here is probably Sarah Pidgeon, whose portrayal of Carolyn Bessette Kennedy made waves not only for her uncanny resemblance to her real-life counterpart but also for her chemistry with her scene partner, Paul Anthony Kelly. She’s competing against heavyweights Carey Mulligan and Sarah Snook, plus veterans Claire Danes and Sally Field, but never doubt the power of a Ryan Murphy show at the Emmys.
The Emmys famously lean heavily toward repeat nominees, with voters often returning to established favorites. But several first-time nominees are well positioned to claim their first Emmy in September. It’s an especially competitive year across several categories, making it all the more disappointing that many of the limited-series races won’t be televised following the Television Academy’s decision to remove five major categories from the main ceremony. Even so, the 2026 Emmy race is full of breakthrough performances that could finally break the Academy’s habit of rewarding familiar names.
Likely first-time winners: Jeff Kober, Leslie Bibb & Carey Mulligan
Competitive, but wouldn’t be shocking: Patrick Ball, Kate O’Flynn, Charles Melton, Karolina Wydra & Sarah Pidgeon
Sorry, maybe their second nomination will score a win: Ernest Harden Jr., Taylor Dearden, Fiona Dourif, Tal Anderson, Tina Ivlev, Brittany Allen, Sepideh Moafi, Gerran Howell, Cherry Jones, Lauren Weedman, Yuh-Jung Youn, Dale Dickey, Hamish Linklater, Miriam Shor, Carlos-Manuel Vesga, Chase Infiniti, Charlie Hunnam, Joy Sunday, Connor Storrie, Matt Vogel
Who do you think will take home their first Emmy this year? Who are your Emmy frontrunners? Please let us know in the comments section below or over on our X account, and check out our latest Emmy winner predictions here.
