In recent years, the Cannes Film Festival has had greater influence on the Oscar race, potentially reflecting the Academy’s growing diversity. Last year, four out of the five Best International Feature nominees and two out of the ten Best Picture nominees premiered at Cannes. The festival concluded this weekend, with a lineup whose buzz was a bit more muted than usual, but it still has its fair share of fantastic, Oscar-worthy films. Today, I’ll dive into which films from this festival are contending for at least one Oscar nomination.
“The Black Ball”
Before “The Black Ball” (Or “La Bola Negra”) premiered at Cannes, there were rumors that the 79th edition of the iconic festival would be fairly lackluster. There were critically acclaimed standouts like “All of a Sudden,” “Fatherland,” and “Minotaur,” but no film truly set the festival on fire with its sheer consensus. Naturally, Los Javis had to drop a heartbreaking, historical, and gloriously gay epic on an unsuspecting Cannes audience on the second-to-last day of the festival to turn things around. The response was unreal, with a litany of critical raves and a whopping 20-minute standing ovation. It’s not hard to see why. “The Black Ball” is ridiculously audacious in its visual presentation, while its beating heart guides every storytelling choice. There was no other film like it at Cannes, and there will be no other film like it this year. While it is easy to make hyperbolic statements like this when very few films have been screened, it is even easier to do so when a film is this major in scope and, more importantly, this truly beloved. The early curve on Letterboxd speaks for itself, but the buzz I have heard around the festival for this film has been euphoric. Those who love “The Black Ball” are obsessed with it, endlessly extolling its unique cinematic experience. Sure, a handful of conversations does not an Oscar lock make. But in my opinion, it is a small part of this film’s big picture: the passion it has had at Cannes will not die down anytime soon. Nominations across the board feel like a given, especially after its Netflix acquisition. This seems to be the studio’s priority this season, and I strongly believe that Netflix will give “The Black Ball” the campaign it deserves to be a top-tier contender, just as they did with “Roma” and “Emilia Pérez.” I would be shocked if this missed a Best Director nomination, despite Los Javis not being as well-known in the industry; a snub would feel comparable to Brady Corbet missing for “The Brutalist.” The film has so much technical excellence at its disposal on such a small budget, as well as a star-making performance from Guitarricadelafuente and a memorable supporting turn from Penelope Cruz. As such, double-digit nominations are well within reach. The only knock against it is that, for as much love as it seems to have, its inability to win the Palme d’Or, the Grand Prix, or the Jury Prize is a bit puzzling. Nevertheless, with its Best Director prize, broad appeal, and critical acclaim, the film feels like a complete home run for Netflix. The streaming studio has been desperately attempting to snatch its first Best Picture win. If they play their cards right, “The Black Ball,” with its likely societal, cultural, and generational impact waiting to occur this fall/winter, could be just that.
“Fjord”
The Palme d’Or has only recently begun aligning quite a bit with a Best Picture nomination, although “It Was Just an Accident” last year made for a tragic exception. Winning the top prize at Cannes does not automatically secure the top nomination at the Oscars, but it does propel you significantly in terms of the awards conversation. Curiously, “Fjord” managed to win both the Palme d’Or and the FIPRESCI award, making it the first movie since “Blue is the Warmest Color” to do so. This sharp drama about a conservative immigrant family’s struggles with assimilation became Cristian Mungiu’s second Palme d’Or following “4 Months, 3 Weeks, 2 Days.” While the film premiered to solid reviews, it was dismissed as a top contender because other Cannes films like “Minotaur,” “Fatherland,” “All of a Sudden,” and “The Black Ball” received stronger critical reception. In that sense, the Palme d’Or was exactly what “Fjord” needed to get its awards prospects back on track. Best Original Screenplay was always in play, considering how strong the praise was for the film’s morally complex writing in particular, but to win the top prize of the festival outright? The love for “Fjord” is much more widespread than expected, and Cannes audiences who saw it resonated with it quite a bit. Anecdotally, it had my theater in the palm of its hand, with unexpected bits of dry humor and a gut-punching ending. I feel fairly confident in it as an Oscar contender right now, but what hurts it is that critics will likely have other Cannes titles to push during the precursors. As such, it hopes to appeal broadly to the industry as much as it did to its Cannes audience. It certainly has a relevant social message, big former Oscar-nominated stars, a European director who has not been recognized by the Academy yet but has built up a respectable career, and it seems destined to provoke a lot of heated conversation and debate upon its release, which will only make its buzz grow. Nominations for Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, Best Actress, and Best Original Screenplay are now in play with this Palme win (Best International Feature is a question mark, considering no one can seem to decide if it meets the Academy’s over 50% threshold for non-English titles). However, it would likely be a lower-tier contender in most of those categories if it gets in, due to the film’s restraint and subtlety. If it is a priority for NEON and does well with the Critics’ Choice, Golden Globes, and the European Film Awards, I’ll keep it in Best Picture.
“All Of A Sudden”
I do not think we can take “Fjord” being NEON’s priority for granted. Yes, it just won the Palme d’Or, and yes, it was their buzziest title heading into Cannes. But “All of a Sudden” has so much passion going for it, even if it did not materialize in a top 3 placement at Cannes. It is a warm, life-affirming film with abundant commentary on how capitalist systems force us to solve the wrong problems in our lives as we prepare for the inevitable end we all face. In a competition slate with quite a few bleak, cold, or otherwise distant films, it stands out for its unambiguous appeal to pathos. Critics and audiences alike fell in love with it, and it remained one of the most talked-about films of the festival throughout, despite its earlier premiere. Because of this, before the Cannes awards ceremony, many believed “All of a Sudden” to be a stronger Oscar contender than “Fjord.” And truthfully, I believe that there is still a path for the film to receive a Best Picture nomination. Ryusuke Hamaguchi is a known entity at the Oscars now, with “Drive My Car” receiving nominations for Best Picture, Best Director, and Best Adapted Screenplay, and winning Best International Feature Film. Yes, the core reason the film succeeded was the unanimous critical push it had, which “All of a Sudden” feels a bit unlikely to receive. With a much stronger awards campaigner in NEON behind this film and far more immediate attention from its festival premiere, this film still has a strong chance. On its best day, the same nominations “Drive My Car” received are in play in addition to nominations for the Cannes award-winning Virginie Efira and Tao Okamoto in Best Actress and Best Supporting Actress, respectively. On its worst day, the only way I see this getting overlooked for Best International Feature is if neither Japan (which could easily submit Kore-eda’s upcoming “Look Back”) nor France submits this.
“Minotaur”
In my opinion, due to the kind of film it is and the distributor it has, “Minotaur” absolutely needed the Palme d’Or to be a serious threat for Best Picture. It has been hailed by critics as one of the year’s best, ranking among Cannes contenders at the top of MetaCritic alongside MUBI’s other release, “Fatherland.” Still, the deliberate emotional detachment and dense thematic messaging of Russian filmmaker Andrey Zvyagintsev’s latest could be a tough sell for Oscar voters. It could follow in the footsteps of “The Zone of Interest,” a similarly brutal and unconventional film that also won the Grand Prix and was nominated for Best Picture, and even won the Oscar for Best International Feature Film. Still, MUBI is not quite as successful with campaigns as A24. Because of this, critics really need to go to bat for this film and keep it in the conversation. Nominations for Best Picture, Best Adapted Screenplay, and Best Director are all theoretically possible. Unfortunately, there’s no way Russia will submit this for Best International Feature, so its hopes in that category will rest with Latvia to select it. Still, I suspect that on its best day, “Minotaur” performs similarly to “It Was Just an Accident” and would fall short of the Best Picture nomination to a film with far more mass appeal.
“Fatherland”
Like Paweł Pawlikowski’s other films, “Fatherland” is a critically acclaimed, artfully directed, and fairly slight period piece. Nominations for Best International Feature and Best Cinematography for “Ida” and “Cold War” cinematographer Łukasz Żal feel fairly easy to call. Yet, I struggle to see the film landing anything beyond that. Sandra Hüller is fantastic and could manage a Golden Globe nomination, but I think she has better chances at an Oscar nomination (or two! or three!) for her other projects. While it boasts the highest Metacritic score in the Cannes In Competition lineup alongside “Minotaur,” it has oddly been overshadowed by buzzier titles. Even though the director and lead actress give this film a lot of pedigree, especially since “Cold War” likely would have gotten a Best Picture nomination in a year of 10 with its Best Director nomination in 2018, I would only put this in my lineup if it made a major dent at the trifecta (NYFCC, LAFCA, NSFC), whether with a Best International Feature sweep like “The Secret Agent” or multiple mentions in above-the-line categories. Make no mistake, the quality is there. But is it the passion?
“Club Kid”
I don’t think anyone saw “Club Kid” coming. For the first week of the festival, the talk of the town was dominated by Jordan Firstman’s exciting, endearing directorial debut and its $15 million sale to A24. It is a crowdpleaser through and through, and it is nearly impossible not to be charmed by it if you’re in its target audience. However, with how singular its tone, style, and humor are, I am a bit skeptical of predicting this for more than Best Original Screenplay at the moment. Writers should surely take note of the brilliant comedy and unexpected depth found in this modern coming-of-age story, but does it have mass appeal? Would older Oscar voters rave about this film and understand the jokes as much as your more chronically online and younger audiences? To me, the real test for “Club Kid” will be TIFF. If it plays at TIFF and places in the People’s Choice, I will become significantly more confident in its ability to win over the industry. Best Picture, Best Actor, Best Original Screenplay, Best Casting, and Best Editing all have arguments on paper.
“Paper Tiger”
Many others seem to believe that James Gray’s latest film, “Paper Tiger,” is an Oscar contender across multiple categories, but we feel differently. We think it can still stand a chance for its performers, namely Adam Driver and Scarlett Johansson. Driver is playing a character who could instantly become a favorite with fans of the film and the Academy, thanks to how well he carries himself, dealing with Russian mobsters with street smarts, and the kind of swagger and confidence that could make him stand out. It’s definitely one of his best performances. And Scarlett Johansson is giving the kind of Oscar-bait performance that actors typically like to recognize. However, we feel the film itself may not be strong enough to get them in. But we seem to be the exception, as many other critics are very high on it, praising it as one of James Gray’s very best films. If that praise continues through the fall film festivals, Driver and Johansson could find themselves in the Best Supporting Actor and Best Supporting Actress conversation, respectively.
“Coward”
If “Fjord” is made ineligible for Best International Feature due to how much English is spoken in that film, or “All of a Sudden” is not submitted by Japan or France, “Coward” is absolutely game for a Best International Feature nomination. Yes, its critical reception pales in comparison to most of its Cannes competitors, but it is perhaps also the most widely appealing of the bunch, save for “The Black Ball.” It is conventionally sentimental and effectively so. If Lukas Dhont’s previous film “Close” could manage a nomination in this category, I hope that the clearly superior “Coward” can do the same. Even technical nominations for its cinematography, sound work, and score shouldn’t be underestimated, considering it’s a war film and those tend to do well with the Academy’s below-the-line branches.
“Hope”
Okay, this is a bit of a long shot given its mixed reception at Cannes. Still, we firmly believe that Na Hong-jin’s South Korean sci-fi fiction action thriller blockbuster “Hope” (the highest budgeted film in South Korean history) deserves at least some consideration in the technical categories at this year’s Academy Awards, specifically for Best Sound and the Best Original Score for Michael Abels’ propulsive work. The film is still being edited, and the visual effects, which proved very divisive amongst critics, will continue to be worked on up until the film’s fall release. If the film resurfaces at TIFF (which we expect it will in the Midnight Madness section), then perhaps those two categories could be re-evaluated with new eyes and considered as well. If the exhilarating movie can be a huge hit with American audiences and generate the kind of reaction it got from its biggest champions out of Cannes, then a single nomination or two in the craft categories is not out of the question.
“Tangles” & “In Waves”
Finally, I’ve decided to lump together two major animated films, “Tangles” and “In Waves,” because my arguments for both are the same. These are two animated films that generated the most buzz at Cannes in a crowded year for animation, for how emotionally they made audiences feel. Plenty of Cannes animated titles go on to be nominated for the Oscar, like “Arco” and “Little Amélie or the Character of Rain” last year, and the Oscar-winning “Flow” the year before. Three Cannes titles in one lineup of five feels like a stretch, and it is not quite as talked-about, beloved, or weighty as the former two films. Still, Sony Pictures Classics’ “Iron Boy” is a fairly likable film as well and could stand a shot in a weaker year for Best Animated Feature. But considering there are still some heavyweight films such as “Toy Story 5,” “Wildwood,” “Forgotten Island,” and “Ray Gunn” still to come, along with “Hoppers” from earlier this year, the field is already looking more crowded than usual.
What do you think? Which films from Cannes 2026 do you suspect will be Oscar contenders this year based on what you saw or heard from the festival? Please let us know in the comments section below and on Next Best Picture’s X account.
