With “Possible Love,” Can Netflix Get A Second International Film Into Best Picture?

With the fall festival season nearing its end, one of the clear stand outs for people – if not one of the stand outs of the year – has been Lee Chang-dong’s “Possible Love.” The esteemed South-Korean filmmaker returns eight years after the release of his beloved film “Burning” with this sweeping emotional epic that has been considered on one of, if not his best films. It follows two couples whose lives intertwine, one attempting to capture the other in their newest documentary film. Netflix has had this film since the start, and with their hefty awards track record and the monumental acclaim it has received, one has to wonder if this could become Lee’s awards breakthrough.

Over the last three decades, Lee Chang-dong has consistently risen in acclaim for his films, and arguably has grown more accessible in his appeal in the latter half of his career. While something like “Burning” is still quite intense and could be off-putting to some, “Poetry” and “Possible Love” feel especially pleasing in their emotional grandness. With that and just how enthusiastic the reception to his latest film has been, it’s fairly been floated as a potential awards contender. The goodwill for his films seems to extend larger than just niche cinephile spaces; particularly with how long “Burning” was streaming on Netflix, it felt like a lot of eyes got on that, which is perhaps partially why Netflix decided to handle this new film. Also, post-“Parasite,” there has been an explosion in the consumption of Korean media with worldwide and, particularly, American audiences, who had otherwise seemed widely averse to foreign films for so long. Even if many people haven’t seen a previous Lee Chang-dong film, the buzz for this is hot enough to likely get lots of newcomers to check it out, especially with how accessible it’ll soon be.

Netflix being behind “Possible Love” is the main reason to predict a successful awards run, even more than the film’s acclaim, quite frankly. They are magic on the campaign trails in getting films nominations. Even with them already having “La Bola Negra,” which will clearly be their bigger push, they have easily gotten two films in Best Picture in many years, and have even come very close to getting a third in multiple times. With “Ink” being quite buzzless out of the festivals and without clear passion, “Possible Love” moves up to #2 for them almost by default. People could argue they may struggle with their top two both being international, but with “La Bola Negra” winning Toronto and being such a crowdpleaser, it will probably not function as what one typically assumes an “international contender” would. People have pointed out how “Parasite” is the only Korean film to ever get nominated in Best International Film, or anywhere else at the Oscars, but despite the amount of egregious snubs, that doesn’t feel like a rule to hold against this film. The Park Chan-wook films that have gotten close and missed are a lot more genre-based and a step down in acclaim from how “Possible Love” has been received. Even if the acclaim evens out, Netflix having this cannot be overestimated in its significance, particularly in comparison to MUBI or being Neon’s fourth priority at best.

Let’s assume this does get in – what would it need to get beforehand for it to be a sure thing heading into nomination morning? Like most intentional contenders, the two most important stops are critics groups and BAFTA. Critics groups will have to go for this for it to be a thing, and frankly it would be embarrassing for them not to back it with the type of film it is. Assuming they do their job and shout the film’s praises from the rooftops, it could even lead into it getting a Best Picture nod at Critics Choice. That isn’t necessary for it to translate to Oscar – most of the international titles that get in don’t happen at Critics Choice – but it would certainly solidify it as a strong contender. The Golden Globes should definitely go for it too. In recent years, they have nominated nearly every intentional Best Picture Oscar nominee, but perhaps them expanding the American voter base could squeeze it out of their lineup. BAFTA will be where this lives and dies. It would need to get into Best Picture, Best Director, and Best Screenplay (placement still unclear) there if it hopes to get those at the Oscars. Obviously, the guilds will likely not go for this but if it has the international voters and critics behind it, that would be more than enough to get into Best Picture at the Oscars.

Let’s say that all this does happen and we know on nomination morning that “Possible Love” will be a Best Picture nominee. What nominations will come along with it? Best Director obviously comes to mind first, as that usually pairs with Best Picture for international films. Right now, after Christopher Nolan for “The Odyssey,” Los Javis for “La Bola Negra” and Martin McDonagh for “Wild Horse Nine,” Best Director is quite open for Lee Chang-dong to slip in. There’s fringe contenders still like Tony Gilroy for “Behemoth!” or Cristian Mungiu for “Fjord,” but you could very feasibly make a five right now that includes Lee. Screenplay is perhaps more interesting. Because it’s loosely based off of a “Dekalog” chapter, there is a chance it runs in Best Adapted Screenplay, but most are assuming for the time being that it’ll be run in Best Original Screenplay. Adapted is probably the better option of the two, as there’s a free slot right now after likely Best Picture nominees “The Odyssey,” “La Bola Negra,” “The Invite,” and “Project Hail Mary.” Best Original Screenplay isn’t necessarily crowded with assured nominees, but it has quite a few bubble contenders. With only “Wild Horse Nine” and “The Debut” seeming like locks, there’s room for it to be a mainstay in the category. Obviously with all this, Best International Feature is the likeliest if it were to get into Best Picture, and despite how competitive that category is this year, it has established itself quite clearly as one of the staples.

They’re perhaps a bit more of a long shot, but the acting ensemble in the film is incredible. A nomination in Best Casting would be very worthy, but given how a similarly small cast like “Sentimental Value” was treated last year that could easily not happen, even if it’s a sure thing elsewhere above the line. However, given that there’s decent room in Lead Actress, at the very least,  critic groups will hopefully go for Jeon Do-yeon. If they can drum up enough buzz and she secures a nomination at the Globes or BAFTA, perhaps there could be a serious chance for her to sneak in at Oscar, which is the likeliest and perhaps only chance the film has in an acting race. The film’s campaign and recognition will likely be the Lee Chang-dong show if it becomes a contender, and for a filmmaker as incredible as him, we will more than accept the opportunity for him to finally get his flowers.