Could Mike Leigh’s Final Film “Tender Loving Care” Secure Him One Last Batch Of Nominations?

It’s rare to see a festival crowd with as infectious an energy as the New York Film Festival’s audience was toward Mike Leigh following the screening of his new, and likely final, film “Tender Loving Care.” After its Telluride premiere, the film has been received with incredible enthusiasm and acclaim, on par with, if not more than his previous film “Hard Truths.” Due to health issues, Leigh announced earlier this year this will probably be the last film he makes, which certainly adds a level of goodwill and gratitude toward a film as special as this and a filmmaker as storied as he. With this energy and the feeling of everyone wanting to give their flowers to Leigh one last time, many are wondering if a once regular Oscar nominee like Leigh can return one last time.

Across his more than 50 year career, Mike Leigh has racked up seven individual Oscar nominations, and gotten many of his actors nominated. Most recently, with Marianne Jean-Baptiste for “Hard Truths,” he directed what many considered both one of the great performances and, sadly, great snubs of its year. She was still able to win plenty of critics groups and hit some of the big precursors that season, even if she was often the film’s lone nomination. Regardless, even if it’s been a while, his name is revered by many film fans and Academy members alike, and his name alone will get a lot of eyes on the film. However, as easy as it is to say that, clearly his name wasn’t enough to get recognition anywhere at the Academy last time, and with Bleecker Street returning as distributor, that sadly may also be the case here. The question will be if the finality of this film will make them push harder, or force people to go more out of their way to see and acknowledge it, but that could easily not be enough given this competitive year and Bleecker’s weak history.

However, let’s say that Bleecker pushes this harder than anything they have before, or critics push it harder than they normally would due to Leigh’s retirement. With that extra effort, what nominations would the film be in the hunt for? Well, the likeliest would probably be Best Original Screenplay, Leigh’s most familiar category. As is, the category is quite competitive right now, with “Wild Horse Nine” and “The Debut” duking it out for a win, and “Obsession,” “Behemoth!” and “Club Kid” contending strongly for the last three slots. “Fjord,” “I Play Rocky” and “Elsinore” also have strong cases at the moment, but there’s certainly space here for “Tender Loving Care” to rise in the ranks throughout the season. With how much the Academy has changed, it’s hard to know if Leigh should still be considered a favorite in the category, as it’s been over a decade since his last nomination. But hopefully enough voters will at least know his significance. Even for newcomers to Leigh, like most of his work, the film is such a showy achievement in writing, the dialogue is some of the richest and funniest of the year, and the characters are all incredibly lived-in. At the bare minimum, it should get in here, and it would be the one nomination it most deserves.

As for Best Picture and Best Director, those will require an even bigger push, especially for the latter. Perhaps it gets both at BAFTA, but again, “Hard Truths” massively underperformed there, so it’s fair to be nervous about something that feels like as much of a no brainer as this. If it were to show up early in the season in Picture categories and is consistent among critics groups, it would indicate the film has been seen enough for Mike Leigh to perhaps make his way into Best Director, but this feels too good to be true to actively consider. The Golden Globes could also go for it in Best Picture, although the guilds would likely be a bit quiet on it given how small and Euro-coded it is. If it does succeed with critics, BAFTA, and Globes, then Best Picture will definitely be possible, and it would be amazing to see that happen. Perhaps we all are a little traumatized by the performance of “Hard Truths” and are overcorrecting in not predicting this, but with other Bleecker films like “Mass” failing to meet their potential, it’s fair to be skeptical.

Like most Leigh films, the ensemble is a major strength; the core four performances all get plenty of time to shine and have ample material to work with. In a perfect world, all four of these performances would be nominated, but which of them, if any, are realistic? Kate O’Flynn, like all four actors, is a Mike Leigh regular, and seems to be the most predicted and acclaimed of the quartet. Perhaps her recent awards and attention for “Widow’s Bay” is propelling such buzz, but no matter what, her name has been uttered the most when discussing any performance awards potential. Both Actress and Supporting Actress have lots of wiggle room for someone like her to sneak in, but it would really depend on the previously-mentioned strength of the film’s buzz throughout the season. Marianne Jean-Baptiste was the clear standout and focal point of her film, whereas the acclaim and screentime being split four ways here does hinder O’Flynn, in comparison. Mike Leigh’s real-life partner and other frequent collaborator Marion Bailey is also a standout, but sadly doesn’t seem to have the mentions O’Flynn does, or that she would need to be a real contender. Perhaps if BAFTA is very kind to the film she will coattail there, or maybe appear at some critics groups, but it seems O’Flynn is the main push and greateest possibility in the acting races.

With how much of a wild card the Best Casting category is, being only in its second year, it would be foolish to write this film’s chances off there. Last year seemed to imply the category will align closely with Best Picture, but with that being our only insight into the voting trends, it could very well not be indicative of the category’s future. With how integral the actors are to Leigh’s films and with his long-time collaborator, casting director Nina Gold, having been nominated last year for “Hamnet,” perhaps there’s enough here for the branch to nominate. Obviously, if the film isn’t happening anywhere else all season, it probably won’t get a lone nomination here with Oscar, but given how new the category is, we could see it happen with an unusual nomination package.

In the end, nearly anybody who watches “Tender Loving Care,” will likely want it to get attention in the coming awards season. With the justified Bleecker worries and a season that already seems quite competitive, it’s completely fair to be skeptical of this as a contender in any category. But with how good the film is and how much people want to celebrate Mike Leigh with what’s likely his final work, we can hope some recognition will be in store.