July 1st marked a milestone in coverage of the 2026 Oscar season, as the Next Best Picture team revealed their first predictions of the season. These debut picks don’t usually end up all that accurate, given that the only major category the NBP team got right in July 2025 was “One Battle After Another” winning Best Adapted Screenplay.
But between the lessons of last preseason and the predicted narratives in this preseason, these are the biggest takeaways from the opening predictions of the NBP team and other early pundits.
It Won’t Take Long To Test This Preseason’s Best Picture Pick
Last year at this exact time, the movie predicted by a majority at NBP to win Best Picture and the most major categories wasn’t “One Battle After Another,” “Sinners,” or even “Hamnet” – but “After the Hunt.” It took until Venice, if not earlier, for that prediction to fall by the wayside, and yet the No. 1 pick for the 2026 preseason will be judged a lot earlier.
It may not be a surprise that “The Odyssey” has the most first-place votes from NBP on July 1, although the likes of “La Bola Negra” and “Wild Horse Nine” aren’t that far behind. But in a mere matter of days, when the first reactions from the July 6 London premiere come in and when everyone else weighs in by its July 17 wide release, picking “The Odyssey” to win Best Picture will either look like a very smart bet or another sheer preseason folly.
Even the most cynical outlooks don’t have “The Odyssey” taking an “After the Hunt” level downfall, so in that sense, pundits should feel comfortable. However, will it wind up becoming a bigger favorite to win it all like “Oppenheimer” was by the end of summer and beyond, or will it drop a bit further down the charts by August 1st?
“Wild Horse Nine” Is Pegged For Nomination History
Although “The Odyssey” is the leading Best Picture vote-getter on July 1st, it isn’t the movie predicted to have the biggest nomination haul, at least above-the-line. In fact, should all the predictions for “Wild Horse Nine” come true, it would have a nomination package unlike any in the last several decades.
This is a movie where pundits expect a Best Picture nomination, a Best Director nomination, and a Best Original Screenplay win for Martin McDonagh, and a whopping five acting nominations – one for every last actor and actress above the title. Even McDonagh’s “The Banshees of Inisherin” and last year’s “Sentimental Value” topped out with four acting nominations while “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” got only three, and even historic above-the-line sweeper “Everything Everywhere All at Once” stalled at seven major category nominations.
As it has been 50 years since “Network” was the last film with five acting nominations, it will look extra predictable should “Wild Horse Nine” fall short – whether because the likes of Steve Buscemi and Parker Posey aren’t actually in the movie enough to make an impact, whether Sam Rockwell doesn’t have room to squeeze in for another McDonagh film, whether newcomer Mariana di Girolamo falls short of being the big discovery of the season, or whether John Malkovich really doesn’t challenge Tom Cruise as the overdue Best Actor frontrunner of the season. But on the off chance all of them actually live up to all this early faith, it will be a historic and prophetic achievement.
Best Actor Is Expected To Be Very Top Heavy
It is no surprise that Cruise is the overwhelming favorite to win Best Actor for “Digger” in the first preseason charts. Yet in the bigger picture, Cruise isn’t the only overwhelming early favorite to at least get a nomination, which could leave the Best Actor bubble very slim if just some of this comes true.
According to most pundits, Malkovich, “Fjord’s” Sebastian Stan and “Project Hail Mary’s” Ryan Gosling are nearly as heavy favorites to receive nominations as Cruise is. On the off chance that pans out in full, it would only leave one spot for everyone else to fight over – and if “The Odyssey” really is a juggernaut, Matt Damon would likely become a major favorite for that spot.
Besides him, the likes of “The Only Living Pickpocket in New York’s” John Turturro, “Behemoth!’s” Pedro Pascal, and “Primetime’s” Robert Pattinson are the biggest presumed contenders who will try to squeeze in. Yet at this time last year, almost everyone assumed George Clooney and Jeremy Allen White were safe near the top of Best Actor, Michael B. Jordan was considered a potential nominee but not a likely winner, and no one had any eyes on Ethan Hawke eventually getting in.
As many as three or even four frontrunners look to have a stranglehold on Best Actor going into fall, what will happen if one or two of them fall off the charts by winter again?
Best Actress Chaos Is Projected To Make A Comeback
Last year was a true anomaly when it comes to Best Actress, as for the first time in the entire 2020s, there wasn’t really a race to speak of. In essence, Jessie Buckley had everything all but sown up by the time the fall festivals ended, yet at the moment, few seem to fear history repeating itself.
In terms of first-place votes, “A Place in Hell’s” Michelle Williams and “Fjord’s” Renate Reinsve are nearly tied, with “The Debut’s” Julianne Moore and even “Obsession’s” Inde Navarrette lurking behind. After a year where Best Actress wasn’t the wildest and most chaotic category for the first time in forever, are we due to have the madness return – or will someone like Moore or another surprise candidate seize complete control by October again?
Given how Julia Roberts and Cynthia Erivo were the top favorites last July, and how Angelina Jolie was the presumed safe pick in July 2024, someone, if not a few someones, is bound to drop off fairly quickly. But when another favorite moves up to take their place, will they ever give it back?
Best Supporting Actor Is A Presumed Two-Man Race
Except for one lone vote for Jesse Plemons in “Digger,” only two men received an opening first-place vote for Best Supporting Actor. One was Paul Giamatti for “The Debut” with 11 No. 1 votes, and the other was John Goodman for “Digger” with every other vote but one.
Between Giamatti seeking his first Oscar win after two nominations and Goodman seeking his first Oscar nomination ever, the overdue narratives are very prominent in this category. Then again, Adam Sandler was widely projected to get his first-ever nomination 12 months ago for “Jay Kelly,” and that didn’t pan out. What’s more, Samuel L. Jackson was the preseason favorite for a career-honoring Oscar for “The Piano Lesson” in July 2024, and it turned out he was barely in that movie.
After last year’s race had Sean Penn winning a third Oscar over the likes of Stellan Skarsgard, Delroy Lindo, and past winner Benicio del Toro, it may well be that voters will want someone new, albeit perhaps someone who’s been waiting a long time, to win out this year. However, will it just be Giamatti and Goodman dueling the entire season – and if one or both falter, will it automatically be one of the presumed “Wild Horse Nine” nominees in Rockwell or Buscemi who moves up next, or someone completely different?
Best Supporting Actress: Chaos Is Expected To Repeat
In terms of first-place votes, both Actress categories are the tightest by far, as Best Supporting Actress starts with di Girolamo and “Digger’s” Sandra Huller tying for the most No. 1 picks. Nonetheless, with both Huller and Penelope Cruz having two performances in the running, di Girolamo potentially splitting votes from her own movie with Posey, and with category placements always changing this race by fall, the chaos may not end there.
But the big grain of salt to keep in mind is that in July 2025, no one was remotely close to guessing what would happen in this category. 12 months ago, Elle Fanning was the one projected nominee anyone got right, the likes of Ariana Grande, Ayo Edebiri, Gwyneth Paltrow, and Laura Dern were the other predicted nominees, Wunmi Mosaku and Teyana Taylor were barely a blip on the radar, and eventual winner Amy Madigan wasn’t within 100 miles of the radar for another month.
With that in mind, will this year be a bounce back for Best Supporting Actress predictions, or will everything get turned upside down by shocking frontrunners all over again?
The Screenplay Categories Are Projected Blowouts Again
Last year offered Screenplay races unlike any in a long time: not one of them was an actual race. There have been years when one screenplay category has been a blowout while another has gone down to the wire. Yet, in 2025, “Sinners” and “One Battle After Another” made both Best Original Screenplay and Best Adapted Screenplay blowouts like none other.
Considering that historic lack of suspense, it’s fair to expect one or even two screenplay races that are nail-biters in 2026. But that’s not what the NBP team sees coming, as Best Original Screenplay is predicted to be a blowout for “Wild Horse Nine,” while Best Adapted Screenplay is nearly as much of a projected sweep for “La Bola Negra.”
Still, it was a lot easier for “Sinners” and “One Battle After Another” to end their screenplay races very early, because they were the top two Best Picture favorites. If the first preseason predictions this year hold, “Wild Horse Nine” and “La Bola Negra” will not be 1-2 for Best Picture, so maybe that will leave some wiggle room in either direction.
At the very least, “La Bola Negra” dominating Best Adapted Screenplay would just be the same old, same old, after two straight years of Best Adapted Screenplay being an uncompetitive sweep for “Conclave” and “One Battle After Another.” For the moment, few really see anything getting in the way of “La Bola Negra” making it a blowout three-peat. However, it probably really depends on how massive “The Odyssey” and “Dune: Part Three” become, how big “Project Hail Mary” remains, and how far critics push smaller potential challengers like “The Invite” and “All of a Sudden.”
Nonetheless, considering how “Wild Horse Nine” has all but three early first-place votes for Best Original Screenplay, and how all those spare votes are for “Digger,” Best Adapted Screenplay might not be seen as the most lopsided category this year. But on the spare chance “Wild Horse Nine” is a letdown and “Digger” isn’t a real play to win this category, does that elevate “Fjord” to be the next Cannes winner turned Best Original Screenplay winner after “Parasite,” “Anatomy of a Fall,” and “Anora,” or does past nominee Jesse Eisenberg break through to win this time for “The Debut” – if not a completely new breakout contender like “Obsession’s” Curry Barker or “Club Kid’s” Jordan Firstman?
12 months ago, the NBP pundits didn’t see the total twin domination of “One Battle After Another” and “Sinners” coming, had too much faith in “After the Hunt,” “Jay Kelly,” and “Wicked: For Good” as everyone else did, and got only one above-the-line category right as per preseason tradition. But pretty much every pundit from every major site has the same track record every July, as being blindsided in some way from July to March is really the only thing we can all count on.
Thanks to “The Odyssey,” it truly won’t take longer than a few days or weeks to figure out what direction this season is going in. As such, by this time next month, most of these first predictions will either look smart or laughable right off the bat, leaving us scrambling to regroup by the start of the very next month and the fall festivals – and then to regroup a few more times before Oscar night finally proves us right or wrong.
Have you seen the newly designed Oscar predictions page from Next Best Picture (powered by Award Expert)? What do you think of the first consensus picks? Please let us know in the comments section below and on Next Best Picture’s X account.
You can follow Robert and hear more of his thoughts on the Oscars & Film on X @Robertdoc1984
