With this year’s Emmy eligibility deadline around the corner, expect to see plenty of Lead Actress contenders emerge and gain strength over the next several weeks. HBO/Max could dominate across the Outstanding Lead Actress categories in Drama, Comedy, and Limited Series with Bella Ramsey (“The Last of Us“), Jean Smart (“Hacks“), and Cristin Milioti (“The Penguin“). Of the three named, Smart has the clearest path to reign supreme as a three-time Comedy Actress Emmy winner. However, the Drama category is currently a nail-biter of competing narratives, and the Limited Series category may have just landed a new frontrunner in Michelle Williams (“Dying for Sex“).
On the Comedy side, who can compete with Smart? “Hacks” has struck a chord for three seasons as a glittering love letter to show business. The show surprised with a Best Comedy Series win over projected frontrunner “The Bear” at last year’s Emmys. With the first two episodes of season four set to premiere on April 10th, there’s a lot more love to go around, and Emmy voters absolutely adore Smart. Plus, “Hacks” has a good strategic rollout; following the premiere, expect one episode a week for four weeks and the final two episodes at the end of May, just before the eligibility window closes. If season four of “Hacks” surpasses season three in terms of critical acclaim, the extra buzz will keep the conversation alive for the next few months.
More of last year’s Comedy Lead Actress nominees are expected to carry over this year, including Ayo Edebiri (“The Bear“), Quinta Brunson (“Abbott Elementary”), and Selena Gomez (“Only Murders in the Building”). Natasha Lyonne, nominated in a previous year for Peacock’s murder mystery “Poker Face,” could return for the show’s second season, which premieres in May. Netflix has the new Shondaland series “The Residence” (starring three-time Emmy winner Uzo Aduba), which premiered to strong reviews and viewership. The streamer also has the upcoming “The Four Seasons” (starring nine-time Emmy winner Tina Fey), set to premiere in May. Currently, the streamer’s biggest priority in this category is “Nobody Wants This,” for which Kristen Bell is on track to receive her first-ever Emmy nomination. Bell did well with the precursors earlier this year, receiving Golden Globe, SAG, and Critics Choice Award nominations. But when it comes to win-competitive contenders, unless Netflix has a smooth check-in with “The Four Seasons,” all paths lead to Smart winning a fourth lead actress Emmy for “Hacks.”
On the Drama side, none of last year’s Lead Actress nominees will be returning this year, making way for a big crossover from the year before. 2023 Emmy nominees Keri Russell (“The Diplomat”), Melanie Lynskey (“Yellowjackets“), Sharon Horgan (“Bad Sisters”), and Elisabeth Moss (“The Handmaid’s Tale”) are all back in the race, in addition to Ramsey. “The Last of Us” did incredibly well at last year’s Emmys, having received 24 nominations (the second-most nominated show that year after HBO/Max’s “Succession“) and eight wins, including a win for Storm Reid in the Drama Guest Actress category. Will season 2 have a similar trajectory this year, with Emmy winner Catherine O’Hara in contention for Guest Actress? Or could Ramsey, in their return as the compelling Ellie, join two-time Emmy winner Zendaya (“Euphoria”) as one of the youngest people to ever win the drama lead actress category?
Among the most win-competitive Drama contenders, Keri Russell has a boost considering how well season 2 of “The Diplomat“ performed with the guilds this year. Season 1 of the political thriller missed Best Drama Series at the Emmys last year, with Russell as the show’s sole nominee. However, season 2 is expected to break through, following a wave of success, including seven Critics Choice Award nominations, five Golden Globe nominations, four SAG nominations, plus WGA, PGA, DGA, and ASC recognition. Additionally, Russell herself is a four-time Emmy nominee. While she unjustly never won on her three lead actress nominations for “The Americans,“ could “The Diplomat“ change course and add momentum to an overdue narrative for Russell?
Other Netflix contenders include Keira Knightley (“Black Doves”) and Nicola Coughlan (“Bridgerton“), both of whom showed up at precursors and guilds this year. Playing the spy-for-hire role of Helen in the British thriller “Black Doves,“Knightley received Critics Choice and Golden Globe nominations. Meanwhile, playing the Regency-era Penelope Featherington in “Bridgerton,“ Coughlan received her first individual SAG nomination for the show’s third season. Knightley and Coughlan are on the bubble of receiving their first-ever Emmy nominations but would need a push on par with “The Diplomat,” Netflix’s top priority in this category.
The Emmys tend to stick with previous nominees in competitive fields; thus, don’t underestimate returning favorites Horgan, Lynskey, and EMoss. Arguably, with Apple TV+ behind “Bad Sisters,“ Horgan could get lost in the streamer’s major push for the smash hit “Severance.“ However, Lynskey and especially Moss have shown they can break through regardless of how “Yellowjackets“ and “The Handmaid’s Tale“ perform. Both shows saw a dip in recognition between seasons; Moss was the only Emmy nomination for “The Handmaid’s Tale“ season five, whereas season four received 21 Emmy nominations, including Moss and Best Drama Series. “Yellowjackets“ went from seven Emmy nominations for season one to three Emmy nominations for season two, and Lynskey made it into the Drama Lead Actress category on both occasions.
Moss winning her second acting Emmy for the final season of “The Handmaid’s Tale,“ following her win for the show’s first season, wouldn’t be out of the realm of possibility. But Moss, alongside all the Drama contenders, faces competition from our top two projected front runners: Kathy Bates (“Matlock”) and Britt Lower (“Severance“). Bates won the 2025 Critics Choice Award for her dual performance in CBS’s Matlock reboot (already renewed for a second season) and generally performed well with precursors and guilds. While she lost the Golden Globe and SAG Award, winner Anna Sawai (“Shōgun“) is not eligible this year.
Network television used to dominate the Drama Lead Actress category for decades consecutively until the rise of streaming services. The last woman to win for a network show was Viola Davis (ABC’s “How to Get Away with Murder”) in 2015. Bates has a very good narrative, enough to bring CBS its first category win since Julianna Margulies (“The Good Wife”) in 2014. There was a ton of enthusiasm in the room, not to mention a standing ovation when Bates won at the Critics Choice Awards and several cheers when she presented at the Golden Globes. Suffice it to say that people in the industry love her. Plus, she tackles an unexpected character duality in “Matlock“ that showcases her legendary generational talent.
The rise of streaming services has made way for platforms like Apple TV+ to join the party. If Lower wins for “Severance,” she would become the first performer to win a Drama Lead Actress Emmy for an Apple TV+ show. The streamer first emerged in this category in 2020 with “The Morning Show,” which marked Jennifer Aniston’s first-ever drama actress Emmy nomination. Aniston received her second nomination for the show last year alongside co-star Reese Witherspoon.
Apple TV+ brings a packed presentation to the table every year and has struck gold with “Severance,” one of the most momentous shows of the decade. At this rate, season two is predicted to surpass season one’s 14 Emmy nominations and potentially sweep with several wins, which could extend even more goodwill towards Lower. Her season two portrayals of innie Helly R. and outie Helena Eagan are a double-acting masterclass in nuance. However, she may not have as many individual standout moments in comparison to lead co-star Adam Scott. Nonetheless, her character(s) play a pivotal role in season two’s narrative development, ending on a high note with the reverberating finale. Of all the Drama contenders, Lower’s show is among the most watched and talked about.
There are only so many shows Emmy voters can catch up with. Thus, it helps to have an enormous platform (like HBO/Max), especially for new shows. Among the categories HBO/Max tends to excel in is Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited Series. This spells a promising path for Cristin Milioti, whose tour de force performance as mob boss Sofia Falcone in “The Penguin” is the network’s biggest contender in the category. Milioti has also done well with the guilds and precursors this year. She received her first-ever Critics Choice, SAG, and Golden Globe nominations and won the Critics Choice Award for playing Falcone. And yet, FX managed to break HBO/Max’s Emmy-winning pattern twice in the last 10 years — with Sarah Paulson (“The People v. O. J. Simpson: American Crime Story”) in 2016 and Michelle Williams (“Fosse/Verdon”) in 2019.
FX has a strong chance of getting another Williams win this year. The network’s limited series “Dying for Sex” stars Williams as a terminal cancer patient who decides to explore her sexuality in new and surprising ways. The show touches on emotional subject matter that many will find relatable, and as a previous winner in the category, some recency bias could boost Wiliams’s chances. Milioti will be Williams’s strongest competition, though Milioti’s chances have shown some vulnerability. While she won the Critics Choice Award, she lost the SAG to Jessica Gunning (“Baby Reindeer”). Milioti’s co-star Colin Farrell was able to win the SAG, Golden Globe, and Critics Choice Awards over Richard Gaad (another “Baby Reindeer” favorite), and Gaad had a headstart as last year’s Emmy winner for Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited Series.
Of the three Lead Actress categories, Comedy feels the most secure, with Drama as the most doubtful. Limited Series falls somewhere in between, as “Dying for Sex” has an incredibly win-competitive star at the core, but we have yet to see the show perform on the awards front. Looking at the bigger picture, around this time last year, Netflix hadn’t yet released “Baby Reindeer,” which became an overnight sensation. It’s early enough to entertain the possibility of another surprise phenomenon taking television by storm, making these categories all the more fun to predict.
Who do you think is likely to win any of the Best Actress categories at this year’s Emmys? Please share your thoughts in the comments section below or on our X account, and be sure to check out our latest Emmy predictions here. Please also be sure to subscribe to the Next Best Series Podcast where we are conducting a number of interviews with Emmy contenders throughout the awards season and discussing the race over the next couple of months.
