There’s a moment in every Emmy ceremony – whether in the Primetime or Creative Arts telecast – just after the envelope is opened and the winner is read when you think…
“How the hell did THAT happen?”
In an era when any number of award precursors seem to predetermine who the Emmy winners will be, true upsets are increasingly rare. But they do happen (remember Jeff Hiller just last year?). And when they do, there’s the joy of seeing the shocked expression of the newly-crowned winner as they make their way to the stage to deliver a speech they never thought they’d get the chance to give. It’s the kind of moment that we, the viewers, live for while watching award shows, a moment that sends a thrill down our spine and makes for a memorable awards season.
At first glance, there may appear to be little room for upsets this year, as “The Pitt” and “Hacks” are each expected to dominate their respective categories. (Limited Series categories are more of a toss-up, with “Beef” and “DTF St. Louis” going head-to-head.) Still, upon closer inspection, a few categories either have vulnerable front-runners or the potential for a split vote that could allow a surprise winner. I’ve isolated four categories where this possibility may actually happen and centered on one nominee who – either through Emmy history or strength of performance – could be the one to give us that jaw-dropping surprise upset, adding an element of anticipation to the proceedings.
However, before we get to it, let’s define how we see a true upset. For example, in the Outstanding Drama Supporting Actor category, if Tom Pelphrey (“Task“) beats the favored Patrick Ball (“The Pitt“), that’s not a genuine upset; it’s just the other front-runner winning. For it to truly be an upset, a nominee should be ranked no higher than third in our Next Best Picture rankings and preferably even lower than that.
STEPHEN ROOT – Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series – “Widow’s Bay” (Apple TV)
It seems like actor Stephen Root has been around forever. After a film and television career spanning nearly four decades, the erstwhile character actor has landed an absolute gem of a role, though you’d probably never think that from the way he was introduced. When we first meet Root’s Wyck Crawford in “Widow’s Bay’s” pilot, he is obsessively ranting about the curse that has plagued the island for centuries. It’s a quirky introduction that leads the audience to dismiss him as merely a colorful side character: the town drunk and resident crank. But as creator Katie Dippold’s storyline probes further, Wyck’s fears begin to become realized, and he moves to the center of the narrative. That’s when Root really starts to cook, slowly revealing just how a childhood death for which he still feels guilt gave him first-hand knowledge of the curse and fueled his determination to protect the town from another tragic recurrence. Root brilliantly delivers in that Episode 7 monologue, which will likely move any heart (and provide him with a strong Emmy clip). Add to that the fact that Root has probably worked with half the members of the Actors Branch over his career, and you’ve got a potential dark horse from the hottest new show in this year’s race.
MERRITT WEVER – Outstanding Guest Actress in a Drama Series, “The Gilded Age” (HBO Max)
You would think Emmy prognosticators would learn from Merritt Wever’s track record to never count her out. In 2013, when she was nominated for her supporting work in “Nurse Jackie” and again in 2018 for her performance in the film “Godless,” she was far from the favorite and won. Just last year, for her guest role in “Severance,” again she was far from the favorite, so much so that Wever made NBP’s 2025 Potential Upsets list. She won again and is the category’s returning champ. Now she’s back, this time for “The Gilded Age,” in which she plays Monica O’Brien, the working-class sister of relentless social-climber Bertha Russell (Carrie Coon), who has kept her sister’s existence a secret from New York society. Rather than present her character as a country bumpkin, Wever digs deeper, creating a woman who is proud of her working-class roots, yet empathetic enough to understand her sister’s drive for societal respectability. Her performance garnered Wever some of her best reviews in recent years and brought her a seventh Emmy nomination. Still, a back-to-back win is going to be tough — “The Gilded Age” doesn’t have nearly the same heat as “Severance” did last year. For those using prediction markets, Wever is still a long shot to take home the Emmy. But count her out at your own peril.
JASON BATEMAN – Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited Series or Television Movie, “Black Rabbit” (Netflix)
Any way you look at it, Jason Bateman has become an Emmy powerhouse. Since 2005, he has earned 18 nominations in four fields: acting, writing, producing, and directing, winning in 2019 for his direction of the “Ozark” season opener. This year alone, he has been nominated for four Emmys — two for his acting in a pair of hot limited series: “Black Rabbit” and “DTF St. Louis,” as well as directing the former series and producing the latter. While each of his nominations is well-earned, it’s his performance in “Black Rabbit” that voters may find to be the most intriguing, as it turns the Bateman public persona completely on its head. In real life, Bateman is considered a dryly funny everyman who’s always in control, but in “Black Rabbit,” he’s a hot mess. His Vince Friedken, once the respected co-founder of the Black Rabbit restaurant, is now a chaos magnet, drowning in a massive gambling debt, who has returned to his younger brother (Jude Law) for help but only manages to unravel both of their lives and futures. Though “Black Rabbit” surprisingly missed a Limited Series nomination (suggesting weakness), Bateman’s reviews were strong, with many critics citing his against-type transformation from likable everyman to dangerous dirtbag the best reason to watch the series. He’s facing tough competition, though, from the category’s front-runners, Oscar Isaac and Matthew Rhys. But if that race is as split as many pundits believe it will be, there may be room for the much-liked Bateman to find a path up the center for the win.
SALLY FIELD – Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited Series or Television Movie, “Remarkably Bright Creatures” (Netflix)
Looking over the various Emmy prediction websites (including NBP’s own), I noticed that in the race for Lead Actress in a Limited Series or Television Movie, Sally Field is ranked at or near the bottom in nearly every one. I was surprised, but I understand. After all, she’s the only nominee from a TV movie and has only two hours to build and realize a character, whereas her rivals have upwards of nine entire episodes to do so. And all of her rivals are in series competing in that hot Limited Series race. But Field has several key advantages that are perhaps being overlooked. For one thing, she’s the star of the film that’s the odds-on favorite to win the Emmy, so her performance has been widely seen. All of her competitors are also at least a generation or two younger than she and may be fighting over the same demographic of Emmy voters, while Field has the older-voters lane all to herself in a five-person race. Finally — and this is no small thing — Sally Field is television royalty. After becoming a comedic star on “Gidget” and “The Flying Nun,” she displayed her dramatic chops in 1977’s “Sybil,” which brought Field her first of three Emmys (She went on, of course, to win two Academy Awards for her dramatic film work). “Remarkably Bright Creatures” marks her first Emmy Award contender in the last 15 years, and at age 79, there may not be too many more chances to reward her. The opportunity to do that one last time might just be irresistible to Emmy voters this year.
Who/what upsets are you hoping and/or predicting will happen at this year’s Emmy Awards? Please let us know in the comments section below or over on our X account and check out our latest Emmy winner predictions here.
