By Matt Neglia The Golden Globe Awards have announced their nominations and just as they do every year, they managed to shock and confuse us, especially after coming off of the Critics Choice Awards last night which for the most part, fell in line with expecations, somewhat. So how does all of this impact the Oscar race for each category? Let’s take a moment to analyze each film category and break them down.
“Hacksaw Ridge” vs. “Hell Or High Water” vs. “Lion” vs. “Manchester By The Sea” vs. “Moonlight“ The big story here is “Silence” being shut out of ALL categories. Not a single nomination for Martin Scorsese’s latest which many are hailing is his latest masterpiece. With “La La Land” planted firmly in the Comedy/Musical category this very much feels like it is between “Manchester By The Sea” and “Moonlight” for the win. We are right now predicting “Moonlight” which is holding strong so far against “La La Land” and could be the film’s main competition all the way up until February. Other notable misses here include “Nocturnal Animals” which managed three nominations in Supporting Actor, Director and Screenplay and “Fences” which only managed two nominations for its actors.
“20th Century Women” vs. “Deadpool” vs. “La La Land” vs. “Florence Foster Jenkins” vs. “Sing Street” While I will admit I’m very happy to see “Sing Street” make the lineup here, “Deadpool” making the lineup is questionable. Either way, it does not really matter which films are nominated here (“The Lobster” would have been a nice nomination) as they are all poised to lose to “La La Land.”
Damien Chazelle vs. Tom Ford vs. Mel Gibson vs. Barry Jenkins vs. Kenneth Lonergan Notable snubs here include Martin Scorsese (Who they generally love), Denis Villeneuve (Even though they don’t usually go for the SciFi genre anyway) and Denzel Washington (Who at least got nominated for Best Actor). Instead they welcomed Mel Gibson back to the party (Don’t expect this to translate into Oscar love for him in this category, although it does help his film’s chances for a Best Picture nomination) and they awarded Tom Ford his first nomination for Best Director (And screenplay). Ford’s last film, “A Single Man” managed to get three nominations back in 2009 and he did the same thing here which means he’s going to be considered a favorite here moving forward in his career. With Scorsese out of the running, this category is down to Jenkins vs. Chazelle. After winning the Critics Choice Award, I would give the edge to Chazelle but don’t count out how much they may end up loving “Moonlight.”
Best Actor Drama
Casey Affleck vs. Joel Edgerton vs. Andrew Garfield vs. Viggo Mortensen vs. Denzel Washington It was certainly surprising to see Tom Hanks miss out here for his performance in “Sully,” while one of the coolest nominations of the day was seeing Viggo Mortensen get nominated for his excellent turn in “Captain Fantastic.” He faces stiff competition wih Affleck and Washington however and it’s true that one of them will most likely win here. While Washington is expected to go over, Affleck’s film performed better overall with 5 nominations total vs. “Fences” 2 nominations, only for acting. This is a category that is too close to call right now and will be a nail biter up until the end. It should also be mentioned that Andrew Garfield once again got nominated for his performance in “Hacksaw Ridge” over “Silence.” Since he’s not eligible for SAG for the latter, his only other chance to show up for Martin Scorsese’s latest is BAFTA. I think it’s safe to assume he’s likely now to be nominated for the Oscar for this film instead.
Best Actor Comedy/Musical
Colin Farrell vs. Ryan Gosling vs. Hugh Grant vs. Jonah Hill vs. Ryan Reynolds The biggest snub here is most likely Warren Beatty for his film “Rules Don’t Apply” (Despite that poorly received film getting a nomination for Lily Collins in Best Actress Musical/Comedy. He was instead replaced by surprise nominee Jonah Hill for his manic turn in “War Dogs” which many signaled him out in the summer for giving the best performance of his career. While, some will be quick to assume that Ryan Gosling has the sewn up, watch out for the HFPA to reward Ryan Reynolds in his career defining role as the Merc with a Mouth in “Deadpool.” Stranger things have certainly happened, remember “The Hangover” winning Best Comedy/Musical?
Best Actress Drama
Amy Adams vs. Jessica Chastain vs. Isabelle Huppert vs. Ruth Negga vs. Natalie Portman After winning the Critics Choice Award last night for what many are calling her career best work, this seems like it could go to Natalie Portman for “Jackie.” However, don’t discount Isabelle Huppert who is having a hell of a year in terms of recognition and being that this is the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, they may feel inclined to award a foreigner with the award. And for the record, I was happy to see Jessica Chastain show up here although I do not expect her to turn up again throughou the rest of the season and Amy Adams making it in here keeps her potential 6th Oscar nomination chances alive.
Best Actress Comedy/Musical
Annette Bening vs. Lily Collins vs. Hailee Steinfeld vs. Emma Stone vs. Meryl Streep Many are assuming that Emma Stone has this category win in the bag but she has not won a single critics award yet and also failed at the Critics Choice Awards last night. Her competition here is less fierce but we still should not discount a surprise Bening or Streep win here. Lily Collins making it in was certainly surprise but if I had my say, I would give the award to Hailee Steinfeld who I personally felt gave the best comedic performance of the year. Anyways, Emma Stone NEEDS to win this category to keep her Oscar win chances alive.
Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali vs. Jeff Bridges vs. Simon Helberg vs. Dev Patel vs. Aaron Taylor-Johnson So this is where we all lost our collective minds as the Hollywood Foreign Press through us for a loop with nominations for Helberg and Taylor-Johnson. NOBODY saw these coming and I would not read into these nominations any more unless they once again pop up at either SAG or BAFTA. Issey Ogata missed out here along with Michael Shannon and Ben Foster in place of these two. What it all adds up to is an inevitable win for Mahershala Ali who has been steamrolling through this category and shows no signs of slowing down.
Best Supporting Actress
Viola Davis vs. Naomie Harris vs. Nicole Kidman vs. Octavia Spencer vs. Michelle Williams I’m not sure anybody was expecting Octavia Spencer to get in here over Janelle Monae (Who also had a good performance in “Moonlight” this year). “Hidden Figures” overall managed two nominations which many saw as an underperformance for the feel good film. The four likely suspects managed to get in here with Davis, Williams, Harris and Kidman also receiving Critics Choice Nominations, and in Davis’ case, the win last night. It appears that Davis is going to continue her dominace in this category right up until Oscar Night where she’ll likely walk away the winner there as well.
“Hell Or High Water” vs. “La La Land” vs. “Manchester By The Sea” vs. “Moonlight” vs. “Nocturnal Animals” Always a tough category to predict due to combining both the Original and Adapted Screenplays into a single category, Best Screenplay gave us some solid choices this year making this category very tough to call. It could go to odds on favorite “Manchester By The Sea,” or to its Critics Choice Tie winner “La La Land.” “Moonlight” and “Hell Or High Water” could always upset and they certainly loved “Nocturnal Animals.” It’s very hard to say which way this will all go and the Critics Choice Adapted Screenplay winner “Arrival,” and other potential Oscar nominess such as “Fences,” “Loving” and “Silence” all missed out. What a great category.
Best Original Score
“Arrival” vs. “Hidden Figures” vs. “La La Land” vs. “Lion” vs. “Moonlight” Is there anything that can stop “La La Land” here? Justin Hurwitz has crafted an enchanting musical score that seems to cast a spell upon anyone that listens to it and he seems poised to win every award now leading up to the big Oscar night. “Arrival” managed its only other nomination here and so did “Hidden Figures.” “Lion” popped up here again after scoring a Critics Choice nomination as well. I would say its chances for an Oscar nomination have certainly increased. Finally, “Moonlight” making it in here and also at Critics Choice Awards should be a strong sign for its Oscar chances in this category as well. All of it does not matter though. This category is going to go to Hurwitz. Plain and simple.
Best Original Song
Can’t Stop The Feeling vs. City Of Stars vs. Faith vs. Gold vs. How Far I’ll Go I’m going to make a bold prediction here and tell you right now that there is no way that “Faith” or “Gold” manage to win here over the powerhouses that are a song (And now Critics Choice Award Winner) from the Best Picture frontrunner, a pop number one radio smash and the greatness that is Lin-Manuel Miranda. If we whittle it down to those three, safe money says to go with the Critics Choice Award winner, “City Of Stars.” However, don’t be surprised if one of the other two wins here. This is currently one of the hardest categories to predict this year, but if “City Of Stars” wins here again, if it manages to get a corresponding Oscar nomination, then I’ll say it’s game over. Oh and by the way, despite managing a Best Film Comedy/Musical nomination, am I the only one upset that not a single song from “Sing Street” managed to get nominated here? I guess it cancelled itself out?
Best Animated Film
“Kubo & the Two Strings” vs. “Moana” vs. “My Life As A Zucchini” vs. “Sing” vs. “Zootopia” Credit to Will Mavity, who accurately predicted back in August that “My Life As A Zucchini” would somehow factor into this year’s Oscar race. What I did not expect however, was how much the Hollywood Foreign Press Association would embrace “Sing.” I mean, it’s fine. But it’s not the best animated film I have seen all year. Not by a long shot. The other three heavy favorites appeared here while Pixar’s “Finding Dory” missed out. I would say it’s a three way race between “Kubo & the Two Strings,” “Moana,” and “Zootopia.” Too close to call just yet.
Best Foreign Language Film
“Divines” vs. “Elle” vs. “Neruda” vs. “The Salesman” vs. “Toni Erdmann” So it’s pretty much between “Elle” and “Toni Erdmann,” am I right? It’s hard for me to comment on this category as the only film I have seen so far is “Elle” so what do you all think? Let me know in the comments below about this category and all of the others. What were you most shocked over not getting a nomination vs. what got in? What do you think of some of these films’ Oscar chances now? You can follow Matt and hear more of his thoughts on the Oscars and Film on Twitter at @NextBestPicture