Making Sense Of The TCA Nominations For The 2026 Emmy Race

The 2026 Television Critics Association (TCA) nominations have just been released, and they are, for lack of a better word, insane. This is one of the few award precursors to the Emmys where the entire cycle competes against itself. And in fact, there is a quite strong correlation between shows with a Program of the Year nomination and receiving an above-the-line Emmy nomination. Last year, “The Rehearsal” received nominations in Writing and Directing, and “The Other Two” also managed two Writing nominations following its surprise Program of the Year nod. Today, I’ll break down the biggest takeaways from this awards body for the Emmys.

“Heated Rivalry” Performs Well But Remains IneligibleThere is one nominee this Program of the Year trend is guaranteed not to apply to. “Heated Rivalry” received the most TCA nominations of the day, alongside “Industry” and “Widow’s Bay,” but it is ineligible for the Primetime Emmys due to being an international production. It received nominations for Program of the Year, Outstanding Achievement in Drama, Outstanding New Program, and two Individual Achievement in Drama nominations for its leads, Connor Storrie and Hudson Williams. The phenomenon’s ineligibility at the Emmys has drawn some backlash, but this strong performance at the TCAs positions it well for the International Emmys. I don’t see it outright winning any of its nominations, but it certainly doesn’t hurt that it is by far the most-discussed show among the contenders.

“Industry” Is Poised For An Emmys Breakout“Industry” is the big winner of the morning, with a record-tying three individual acting nominations for Myha’la, Marisa Abela, and Ken Leung alongside its Program of the Year and Outstanding Achievement in Drama nods. For context, the previous season only received an Outstanding Achievement in Drama nomination in this category. The Program of the Year mention is huge for the underrated HBO series, which hopes to finally break into the Primetime Emmy race after the jump in buzz its fourth season received. The strong critical support for this show makes me think a Writing nomination is extremely feasible. Among its performers, Leung seems best positioned for a nomination due to his longer tenure as an actor, his “Emmy tape” being the most acclaimed episode of the season, and his Supporting Actor category being the easiest to break into. However, this extreme overperformance—three acting nominations is rare and has previously happened only to juggernauts like “Succession” and “Severance”—raises the question of whether this little financial drama that could can actually break into the Drama Series lineup. Am I currently predicting it? No. But would I love to see it? Absolutely!

“Widow’s Bay” Storms The TCA AwardsOur final nomination leader is a show increasingly threatening to win Outstanding Comedy Series at the Emmys: “Widow’s Bay.” Before these nominations dropped, my biggest question about this show was whether it had broken out too late for its visible passion to translate into nominations. Clearly, the answer is no. Nominations for Program of the Year, Outstanding Achievement in Comedy, Outstanding New Program, and two Individual Achievement in Comedy nominations for Matthew Rhys and Kate O’Flynn, mere weeks after the show began gaining traction, are absurd. The love for “Widow’s Bay” is very real, and doubting its Emmy chances across the board is about as sensible as doubting the many curses of the extremely haunted titular town. In particular, the Kate O’Flynn nomination feels immense for a previously unknown actress in a supporting role. Between her standout episode in “Beach Reads,” Patricia’s status as the fan favorite character, and the overall buzz “Widow’s Bay” is having amongst critics, audiences, and industry, I absolutely think we can pencil her in for an Emmy nomination. Truly, this breakout is reminding me more and more of the one “The Pitt” received last year. For my money, I think this is our Program of the Year frontrunner.

“The Pitt” Continues To Do Well With Awards BodiesSpeaking of “The Pitt,” the reigning Program of the Year champion actually improved its haul this season. While it also received four nominations last year, it was ineligible for Outstanding New Program this year and instead managed to add an Individual Achievement in Drama nomination for Katherine LaNasa. While it has competition in “Pluribus,” “Industry,” and “Heated Rivalry” in the Outstanding Achievement in Drama race, I think it repeats its win here, even if it loses Program of the Year.

“Hacks,” “Shrinking” & “The Comeback” All Have Solid Nomination Hauls“Hacks” is our Outstanding Comedy Series frontrunner, and it repeated its haul from last year, which was essentially the show maxing out. The show’s final season is rightfully beloved and has a strong chance of winning Program of the Year, Outstanding Achievement in Comedy, and Individual Achievement in Comedy for Jean Smart or Hannah Einbinder. The only caveat is that in that last category, Smart and Einbinder run the real risk of vote splitting.

“Shrinking” in theory could have done better by earning Individual Achievement in Comedy nominations for Jason Segel or Jessica Williams alongside Harrison Ford, but come on. This is also clearly the show’s best performance at the TCAs and marks the first time the show received a nomination in Program of the Year. “Shrinking” is being set up to have its best year yet at the Emmys. Will it finally receive nominations for Writing or Directing, or a long-awaited Emmy win for Harrison Ford?

And finally, I was admittedly a bit worried that the buzz for the brilliant final season of “The Comeback” was dying down and slipping out of Comedy Series contention. Note to self: I don’t have to see that! The show received across-the-board mentions for Program of the Year and Outstanding Achievement in Comedy, and an Individual Achievement in Comedy nomination for Lisa Kudrow. Even though Jean Smart winning her fifth consecutive Emmy for Outstanding Actress in a Comedy Series feels like a foregone conclusion, I truly believe Kudrow is competitive at the TCAs. It doesn’t hurt that her biggest threats, Jean Smart and Matthew Rhys, have their extremely likable costars nominated in the same category, ready to steal votes. But ultimately, the strong haul for “The Comeback” is exactly what this show needed to solidify its place in the Outstanding Comedy Series lineup at the Emmys.

For The First Time, No “Abbott Elementary” Women Are NominatedDespite delivering yet another strong season, “Abbott Elementary” has had perhaps its worst precursor run in its show’s history. For the first time, the once Program of the Year winner was unable to garner a single nomination for any of its performers. Typically, at least one of Quinta Brunson or Janelle James was mentioned, but that is not the case this year. Unfortunately, this also means that the entire Individual Achievement in Comedy lineup is white. All of the nominees are incredibly deserving, but do better! Thankfully, the show did hold onto its Outstanding Achievement in Comedy nomination. While the show seems primed to miss a few of its perennial nominations, Outstanding Comedy Series will not be one of them.

“Margo’s Got Money Troubles,” “The Lowdown” & “The Chair Company” Remain Borderline Comedy Series Contenders“Margo’s Got Money Troubles,” “The Lowdown,” and “The Chair Company” are all critically acclaimed shows with limited visibility, fighting for the last few slots in Outstanding Comedy Series at the Emmys. None of their nomination hauls at the TCAs count them out, but none are slam dunks either.

“Margo’s Got Money Troubles” clearly performed the best of the three, nabbing nominations for Outstanding Achievement in Comedy, Outstanding New Program, and Individual Achievement in Comedy for Elle Fanning. But while its buzz started solid, I do think that its hype was usurped by “Widow’s Bay” beginning to air about halfway through its run. Its critical reception is strong, and Apple TV has been campaigning for it quite heavily, but a Program of the Year nomination for it would have done wonders. Still, I think it is by far the safest of the three shows here in the Comedy Series lineup.

“The Lowdown” received nominations for Outstanding Achievement in Comedy and Outstanding New Program while missing an Individual Achievement in Comedy nod for its lead, Ethan Hawke. I think the show is still a bit too small to happen in Comedy Series, but an above-the-line Emmy nomination is still in the cards. Hawke did feel like the show’s best chance at an Emmy nomination at first. Still, in the wake of this clear critical support, I actually think Writing can happen for the show since that category is typically most in line with critics.

And then, there’s “The Chair Company,” which only received one nomination: Individual Achievement in Comedy for Tim Robinson. Missing Outstanding Achievement in Comedy and Individual Achievement in Comedy is a huge blow, and I do think this poor performance makes it the weakest of the three shows here at the Emmys. However, between Robinson’s Gotham win and the TCA nomination, there still seems to be passion for the Emmy winner. I think he will get an Emmy nomination next month, but whether that’s for In Writing or Lead Actor, I remain unsure.

While these shows could have performed better, it does help that long-running series are also contending for the last few slots, like “The Bear” and “Only Murders in the Building” blanked here. I do believe there is a world where we finally get a bit of overhaul in the Comedy Series lineup, but I’m not bold enough to predict it yet.

Shutouts Include “The Diplomat,” “Euphoria” & “Rooster”“The Diplomat” and “Slow Horses” were once again shut out of the TCAs, but this is hardly surprising. Over the course of these shows’ runs, they have never received a TCA nomination. This hardly affects their Emmy chances, but I do wonder why voters refuse to nominate these series.

No one was expecting the critically reviled “Euphoria” to land a Program of the Year nomination or even an Outstanding Achievement in Drama nomination. Still, Zendaya missing the Individual Achievement in Drama nomination is a bit of a surprise! She has always been where the bulk of the “Euphoria” passion went, but her inability to break in here does make me think her chances of winning are dead.

“Rooster” not getting Outstanding Achievement in Comedy or Individual Achievement in Comedy nominations is a bit surprising, since Bill Lawrence shows usually do well here, except for the divisive third season of “Ted Lasso.” If it gets into the Comedy Series lineup at the Emmys, it wouldn’t be because of its critical appeal, so this isn’t quite a dealbreaker. Whether you have the show in series or just missing, I doubt this snub changes your mind.

The shutout I am saddest about has to be “The Testaments,” although I understand why. There was a lot of “The Handmaid’s Tale” fatigue after the last two seasons, and those seasons blanked at the TCAs. The show’s spinoff performing just as poorly is to be expected. Still, a deserved nomination for Chase Infiniti would have greatly helped her chances at an Emmy nod.

“The Late Show With Stephen Colbert” SurprisesThe biggest Program of the Year shocker was “The Late Show with Stephen Colbert,” which came to an untimely end this May. This is a remarkable feat for a variety talk series, especially since this category almost solely includes narrative series! A late-night talk show has not been nominated here for two decades. If there was any doubt that this show is repeating its Outstanding Variety Talk Show win, this nomination should dispel that.

Rhea Seehorn Can Repeat Her Individual Achievement In Drama WinAfter winning Individual Achievement in Drama in 2023 for “Better Call Saul,” Rhea Seehorn is back for yet another Vince Gilligan show. She has so far won the Golden Globe and the Critics’ Choice for her performance, and while she lost the Actor Award to Keri Russell in “The Diplomat,” Russell is not nominated here. The Individual Achievement in Drama lineup is also ripe with potential votesplitting: Connor Storrie and Hudson Williams are both nominated for “Heated Rivalry,” Noah Wyle and Katherine LaNasa are both nominated for “The Pitt,” and Myha’la, Marisa Abela, and Ken Leung are all nominated for “Industry.” The only performers who are the sole representatives of their shows here are Rhea Seehorn for “Pluribus,” Sterling K. Brown for “Paradise,” and David Harbour for “DTF St. Louis.” Of those three, I think Seehorn has the most passion, and I feel confident in predicting her to win her second TCA award.

David Harbour Looks Likely For An Emmy WinMy last takeaway is that David Harbour is absolutely winning the Emmy for “DTF St. Louis” as long as the show breaks into the series lineup. While performers like Sarah Pidgeon, Carey Mulligan, Jamie Bell, and Richard Gadd all had the potential to receive individual nominations, Harbour was the only performance from a miniseries to secure a TCA mention. He is the beating heart of “DTF St. Louis,” and no one else in his field seems to match his level of passion. While his costar Jason Bateman looks likely to get nominated at the Emmys, I am increasingly skeptical that he will pull many votes away from Harbour. The fact that no other miniseries could get one of its performers into the Individual Achievement in Drama category also makes me wonder if “DTF St. Louis” could add a TCA win for Outstanding Achievement in Movies, Miniseries, or Specials under its belt next to its Gotham wins for Limited Series and Harbour. On paper, the show has quite a small viewership and a solid but not outstanding critical reception, but I wonder if the actual passion it has is stronger than those numbers suggest. In a Miniseries race where no contender checks every box or seems undeniable, could this be a deciding factor?

Who/what are you hoping will be nominated at this year’s Emmy Awards? Please let us know in the comments section below or over on our X account and check out our latest Emmy nomination predictions here.