It’s always a battle between networks for Emmy nominations, and HBO walked away with the most this year at 122. Netflix and Apple TV follow with 111 and 87, while ABC, Hulu, FX, Peacock, and Prime Video trail far behind. A handful of other networks received a few nominations across various categories, but the race to take home the most wins is between the big three: HBO, Apple, and Netflix. Will HBO be able to play the odds and take home the most wins? That seems like an easy prediction, but some categories are more competitive than we think.
At Next Best Picture, we love predicting award races. For the Emmys this year, we’re calling 31 categories that would’ve (and should’ve) been televised on September 14th. Instead, the Television Academy moved five categories out of the NBC telecast, mostly in the Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series races. We’re still here to give those categories love, as the shows deserve recognition. Among these 31 categories, there’s more competition than you think, and the folks at HBO probably won’t be sleeping easily over the next few weeks.
If you look across the board, HBO has three strongholds across major categories: “Hacks” for Outstanding Comedy Series, “The Pitt” for Outstanding Drama Series, and “DTF St. Louis” for Limited or Anthology Series. Going into the season, you could have put money on “Hacks” and “The Pitt” sweeping across the board; that is, until “Widow’s Bay” came in late with a Matthew Rhys-sized campaign. The Comedy races are a bit more competitive, as “Widow’s Bay” over-performed in nominations than originally expected. We could see the Television Academy going a couple of ways here. Rewarding “Hacks” for its final season and sending everyone off into the sunset with trophies, placing weight on the masterful ending and wanting to give it a proper final bow, or viewing that “Hacks’s” time is up, and rewarding “Widow’s Bay” as it’s the perfect new balance of comedy and horror that we haven’t seen before.
Currently, we can see “Widow’s Bay” winning a few key competitive races, such as Outstanding Supporting Actress for Kate O’Flynn and Directing for Hiro Murai. Outstanding Writing, Lead Actress, and Comedy Series will most likely go to “Hacks.” “Shrinking” pops up with a few predicted wins here as well for Apple, mainly (please God let this finally happen) Harrison Ford for Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy. Michael J. Fox also made a memorable impression in the Guest Actor category, which could give Apple another win, but don’t be surprised if everyone’s hearts give it to Rob Reiner in “The Bear.” Expect a pretty even split for comedy, with Netflix left in the dust.
Outstanding Drama Series seems to be an easy win for HBO. “The Pitt” took a slight hit in ratings from Season One to Two, but is still widely expected to pull home many awards on Emmy night. Outstanding Drama Series, Noah Wyle, Katherine LaNasa, and even a Guest or Supporting category or two will likely bring home wins. Apple isn’t fully left out here, though, and Vince Gilligan made sure of that. Rhea Seehorn may finally get her overdue Emmy trophy for Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series…that is, if Keri Russell doesn’t get in her way for “The Diplomat.” Vince Gilligan may overcome Noah Wyle for Directing, and Writing could even fall to Apple again for “Slow Horses.” And even though NBP hasn’t predicted that Katherine LaNasa will lose, it wouldn’t come as a surprise if the academy rewards Karolina Wydra for her dynamic performance as Zosia in “Pluribus.” We can expect a few more HBO wins Outstanding Drama Series, with Apple trailing closely behind.
For Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series, here’s where Netflix can really compete. While “Beef’s” second season wasn’t as renowned as its first, there were a handful of performances that could walk away with wins on Emmy night. Oscar Isaac and Carey Mulligan are currently in the lead in predictions, and we can expect at least one of those two to walk home with wins, if not both. Netflix also has three of the four nomination slots in Outstanding Directing for a Limited Series, putting 75% odds in their favor for a win. But that’s not taking into account that they’re competing against HBO’s flagship limited series this year, “DTF St. Louis.” Steven Conrad directed all seven episodes of this limited series, an impressive feat the academy will likely want to award. We can see him splitting another nomination with a loss for Writing to Lee Sung Jin for “Beef,” but this category is likely more competitive than we realize. Each of the three main cast members of “DTF St. Louis” is also competing in the Supporting categories, and we wouldn’t be surprised if two of the three walk home with wins (David Harbour and Linda Cardellini), which leads us to believe “DTF St. Louis” will take home the Outstanding Limited Series win.
But a sleeper hit Netflix has under its belt is “Remarkably Bright Creatures” in Television Movie, a star-studded feature with Sally Field (who is nominated herself) and Lewis Pullman. It has just enough feel-good sentimentality to bring home a win. We can expect most of Netflix’s wins to fall in the Outstanding Limited Series categories this year. Unfortunately, we won’t be able to watch that happen on live TV (thanks, Television Academy).
The Emmys tend to fall into a trap of rewarding predictability, but there’s a handful of races that are quite a toss-up this year. HBO may have had the most nominations, but it’s far from an easy call to say they’ll take home the most wins.
Final predictions (for now): HBO with 12, Apple with 9, and Netflix with 4, but there’s plenty of room for Apple to overtake HBO on Emmy night.
Who do you have winning the most Emmys this year? What categories would surprise you the most? Please let us know in the comments section below or over on our X account, and check out our latest Emmy winner predictions here.
