Before the season kicked off in May at the Cannes Film Festival, Sandra Hüller had already cemented her place in the awards race after winning the Silver Bear for Best Leading Performance for her work in “Rose,” which premiered at Berlinale. It didn’t take long for cinephiles and pundits alike to realize that the “Anatomy of a Fall” actor, who received her first Oscar nomination in 2024 and broke out on the scene in 2016’s “Toni Erdmann,” was going to appear in a slew of awards-poised films. From “Project Hail Mary,” to “Fatherland,” and from “Rose,” to “Digger,” it’s fair to say that no actor (except for maybe Zendaya and Robert Pattinson) has dominated the screen in 2026 quite like Hüller. It feels inevitable that she will land a nomination for one of her acclaimed performances, if not multiple (especially now that actors can receive more than one nomination in the same category). But which of her four films stands the best chance of earning Hüller her second Oscar nomination?
Earlier in the year, Hüller seemed like a sure bet in Best Supporting Actress for her turn as Eva Stratt in “Project Hail Mary,” the feel-good sci-fi blockbuster from directors Phil Lord and Christopher Miller. That film has remained a firm part of the Oscar conversation since it became a box-office sensation in March. As the film progresses, Hüller reveals deeper layers beneath Eva’s cold exterior, especially during the emotional karaoke scene where she sings “Sign of the Times” by Harry Styles. That certainly feels like Hüller’s Oscar clip, and it instantly became the film’s anthem. (There’s also that viral story Hüller told the press about how Ryan Gosling had to convince her to sing.) But as the season has gone on, pundits have lost faith that Hüller will land a nomination in a crowded category for this role, and the same goes for Gosling in Best Actor.
Out of Hüller’s four performances, it’s safe to say her least likely chance at a nomination is for her work in “Digger,” directed by Oscar-winner Alejandro González Iñárritu. Her screen time in the film is incredibly brief as Emma, the sister of Tom Cruise’s Digger Rockwell, and critics have pointed out that Iñárritu underuses her talents. Even if “Digger” were to somehow land a Best Picture nomination at the end of the day (which, given the industry coming to the film’s defense, isn’t completely out of the question), it seems unlikely that Hüller would make the cut, especially given how much airtime the film lends to its male characters played by Cruise, Riz Ahmed, and John Goodman.
The lead actress category, which feels more open than usual outside of Julianne Moore’s likely win for “The Debut,” may be where Hüller stands the best chance. Paweł Pawlikowski, who nabbed a Best Director nomination in 2019 for “Cold War,” closes out his unofficial trilogy of black-and-white historical dramas with “Fatherland,” which won Best Director at Cannes. In the film, Hüller stars as Erika, the daughter of famous German author Thomas Mann. “Fatherland” gives her a wide range of emotions to play as she not only reckons with returning to her war-ridden country, but grieves the loss of her brother, Klaus (August Diehl), who dies by suicide. The film has a real shot at landing nominations for Best International Feature and Best Cinematography, which could boost Hüller’s profile. But she is often in the background and not centered in the frame, in line with Pawlikowski’s observational approach to filmmaking. However, another strong International Feature contender gives Hüller plenty of close-ups, and it may just be her best shot at Oscar gold.
In “Rose,” Hüller plays a woman who disguises herself as a man in 17th-century Germany, claims a plot of land that isn’t hers, and begins to arouse suspicion among the local villagers. It’s easily the most transformative performance Hüller has given to date, and the entire film is centered around her psychological journey. She has slowly climbed the Best Actress odds over the past several months and recently landed in the Top 5 on Award Expert for “Rose.” While Markus Schleinzer’s film hasn’t quite caught steam in other categories, it has strong reviews (88 on Metacritic), and Hüller’s work will likely appeal to the Academy’s international voters. It also helps that a potential Best Actress nomination would pair well with a Best Makeup & Hairstyling nomination. It’s often hard to believe you’re watching Hüller in this role, and Academy voters love a good transformation (even if she isn’t necessarily playing a real-life figure here).
Overall, “Rose” feels like Hüller’s best bet, and people will keep discovering this performance in the months leading up to the film’s December release. But there’s also a case to be made that her work in “Project Hail Mary” is being widely underestimated, especially now that Amazon MGM is ramping up its awards campaign. And if Gosling does find himself in the best Actor category, seeing Hüller come along would pair well.
No matter where Hüller lands on Oscar nomination morning, 2026 has been an embarrassment of riches for her, and it’s not hard to imagine the “Anatomy of a Fall” star back in the Oscar conversation soon.
Which of Sandra Hüller’s 2026 performances do you think is most likely to get nominated? Which is your personal favorite? Please let us know in the comments section below and on Next Best Picture’s X account, and check out Next Best Picture’s latest Oscar predictions here.
