If last year’s Emmy race felt a bit predictable, that’s because it was. Having to endure multiple seasons in a calendar year due to the strikes led to the Television Academy providing mostly sweep winners for both telecasts. Not that the best series didn’t win, but this year, it would be refreshing to see the love spread around a bit more. While some of the voters’ check-down-the-line nature might also be apparent in this year’s Emmys (mainly the drama categories), the potential for it to be more various in terms of winners is far more possible than it has been in recent memory.
Among the different categories, the one that seems the most challenging to determine the winners for this year is Outstanding Lead Actor. Whether it’s a comedy, drama, or limited series, there are multiple people per category vying for a chance to become an Emmy winner. Here’s how the races in the lead acting categories can shape throughout the rest of this year’s Emmy season and who is a threat to win each of the Outstanding Lead Actor categories in Drama, Comedy, and Limited Series or Television Movie.
Hiroyuki Sanada steamrolled the entirety of last year’s awards season for Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series as “Shogun” was a massive hit among audiences, critics, and voters in the Television Academy. Right now, the race for Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series is a two-headed competition between Adam Scott (“Severance“) and Noah Wyle (“The Pitt“). Scott, who was previously nominated in 2022 for his series’s freshman season, has everything going for him as “Severance” is all anyone can talk about right now. The hit Apple TV+ show is currently the frontrunner for Outstanding Drama Series and is in a position to win a slew of awards in below and above-the-line categories. The potential for an overperformance in nominations is also inevitable, so a “Severance” sweep that takes Scott along shouldn’t be taken lightly.
We’ll have to see if Apple TV+ can sustain the momentum now that the season is over, especially with the overwhelmingly positive word of mouth that has led Max’s “The Pitt” to become an overnight sensation. On the other hand, Noah Wyle is an Emmy darling, earning five nominations for his work on what was considered the gold standard of medical dramas: “ER.” Wyle, who also wrote an episode on “The Pitt” and executive produces the series, has drawn critical acclaim for his work as Dr. Robinavitch. It’s a powerhouse performance that is certainly up to par to go against Scott. If “The Pitt” were to overperform on nomination morning, Wyle would certainly be on Scott’s heels, if not taking the lead. This could end up being one of the tightest races at this year’s Emmys.
Regarding Outstanding Actor in a Comedy Series this year, the race isn’t just between two contenders, but possibly three. Jeremy Allen White, who’s been running the gauntlet the past two seasons for his work in “The Bear,” could repeat for a third time. The overall perception of “The Bear” has slightly cooled off since the third season’s release, which could prevent it from maxing out in potential wins, along with White pulling off the three-peat. The best case scenario for White is having season four of “The Bear” released towards the start of the voting deadline to help sway influence among voters’ minds when voting for a previous season (That’s assuming season four of “The Bear” will be as strongly received as the series’ first three seasons). Maybe the allure of the series has faded, which would make voters in the Television Academy align with a series considered more of a traditional “comedy.”
White’s strongest competition this awards season would be Martin Short, who has been nominated for every season of “Only Murders in the Building” and might have finally gained the support needed to earn him his first Primetime Emmy acting win. Short’s surprise SAG win only shows his strength among voters and the series as a whole, as it won Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Comedy Series. Some series take years for the Television Academy to catch up with, and “Only Murders in the Building” could finally have its big moment, along with Short, to finally earn that Outstanding Comedy Series Emmy. This all depends on how the new season of “Hacks” is received, but considering it’s fresh off its best season with the Television Academy, it won’t be easy.
Adam Brody is also definitely in the mix, as his turn in the beloved freshman season of “Nobody Wants This” is sure to earn him his first Emmy nomination. Brody has earned a nomination at every precursor so far this season and even scored a win at CCA. What holds Next Best Picture back from predicting Brody for the win is that while his series is widely appreciated, it’s not a major threat to win anywhere else this season, let alone overperform in nominations. If Brody had won SAG, then an Emmy win would have been more likely to follow, but it’s possible Short took away any momentum he was building. Brody is incredibly charming in the series and is sure to come back for future seasons, so if it were to be Short’s time to win, it wouldn’t be the be-all and end-all.
Of every actor named in this piece, Colin Farrell might have the easiest path to winning an Emmy, as he is currently the frontrunner for Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie for “The Penguin.” Farrell, who is beloved by many in the industry, has won the Golden Globe, CCA, and SAG awards in his category for his work in the hit HBO limited series. The sweep would almost be guaranteed if it weren’t for Stephen Graham and the surge of “Adolescence” taking over the limited series race. Graham is a veteran actor respected by many in the industry, just like Farrell, and the way “Adolescence” has taken the world by storm since its release should be noted. It feels like “Baby Reindeer” all over again (both pushed by Netflix), where it comes in at the right moment and takes over in a majority of the awards it’s nominated for.
“The Penguin” never felt like a strong enough frontrunner and was only a placeholder until a far bigger series took its momentum. Farrell, unlike Graham, can easily win without his show winning. “The Penguin” is far more likely to be a bigger player in the acting categories, while “Adolescence” can score wins in writing, directing, and series. It’s the best of both worlds scenario where Farrell can win an Emmy for acting, and Graham could win as well since he is a writer and co-creator of “Adolescence.” The limited series categories might be the only categories that feel more secure right now, winners-wise, but there’s still plenty of time for things to shake up everywhere.
Which of these actors has the best chance to win their category? Is there anyone we didn’t name that we are underestimating? Please share your thoughts in the comments section below or on our X account, and be sure to check out our latest Emmy predictions here. Please also be sure to subscribe to the Next Best Series Podcast where we are conducting a number of interviews with Emmy contenders throughout the awards season and discussing the race over the next couple of months.
