Friday, December 2, 2022

How Will The Golden Globe & SAG Nominations Impact The Oscar Race?

By Ryan C. Showers

The nominations for the two award shows with the most notoriety prior to the Academy Awards, the Golden Globe awards and the Screen Actors Guild Awards, will be announced on Monday and Wednesday, respectively. These two award shows hold creditability and stature that benefit films and artists in different ways. The Golden Globes are the second most publicized event of the year after the Academy Awards, and they hold a greater level of importance than they used to. This is mostly due to the fact that the Hollywood Foreign Press often has their fingers on the pulse of the progressive and modern cultural moment. However, the Golden Globes do not have any direct correlation to or impact on the Oscars, rather, they simply allow filmmakers and actors chances to gain momentum through speeches, appearances, and word-of-mouth acclaim. SAG, on the other hand, is made up of voters who actually vote in the Oscars, which can serve as indicative evidence in predicting which actors will be nominated for the Academy Awards and who will win. 


​In the drama categories this year, the Golden Globes have the majority of the big players in the Best Picture Oscar race to juggle. In fact, there are six films that will likely be playing a round of musical chairs in order for the final five nominees to be set in place for Best Picture (Drama). “Call Me By Your Name,” “Darkest Hour,” “Dunkirk,” “​The Post,” “The Shape of Water,” and “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” are the films that will be competing for one of the five slots, with “The Florida Project” as a potential surprise nominee. Each can be weighed by pros and cons. The Hollywood Foreign Press likes to recognize films that take place in foreign countries and non-American filmmakers (“The Shape of Water” and “Call Me By Your Name”), but the key to their taste is looking at the films that feel relevant to the times and the amount of big-name movie stars that headline the contending films (“​The Post”).

If I had to take a wild guess at which of the six frontrunners is left out, I would guess “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” due to the way it is dividing viewers. (The Hollywood Foreign Press is also a small organization, so if you alienate even a few, it could be detrimental.) It’s the type of film like “Gone Girl,” where it will likely gather other major nominations but fail in the big category due to its daring nature as an overall film. The reviews of “Darkest Hour” could be the film’s poison that prevents it from moving past the Best Actor race with this group of voters. Or perhaps the organization’s general distaste for action films (And the lukewarm view of Nolan’s work) could make “Dunkirk” the odd man out. Whichever film is left out will be difficult to predict, so throw a dart, make a call, and turn in for the day.

The lead acting races on the drama side of the show will likely follow the actors in the Best Picture contenders. If the Hollywood Foreign Press likes the films themselves, there is a good chance the principle actors will follow suit. (You’ll likely see big names like Meryl Streep, Frances McDormand, Sally Hawkins, Tom Hanks, Daniel Day-Lewis, Gary Oldman, and Timothee Chalmet.) The fun of splitting the categories by genre is the possibility for wild card candidates whose Oscar prospects are bleak for various reasons to at least receive some recognition. One could go with Christian Bale (“Hostiles”), Jessica Chastain (“Molly’s Game”), Denzel Washington (Roman J. Israel, Esq.”), and Kate Winslet (“Wonder Wheel”) for safe picks as actors with meaty roles in films with favorable release dates; the other route is going with riskier bets whom the Hollywood Foreign Press may show some mercy to, like Jennifer Lawrence (“mother!”), Jake Gyllenhaal (“Stronger”), Robert Pattinson (“Good Time”), or Annette Bening (“Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool”).


When talking about the drama categories, I insinuated that acting nominees followed Best Picture nominees, but with the comedy/musical races, Best Picture nominees often follow the buzz of competitive lead performances. Sure there are films like “Lady Bird” and “Get Out” that are carrying their own buzz and are locked for nominations in Best Picture (Comedy/Musical) and a lead acting nomination for each Saorise Ronan and Daniel Kaayula. As well, the Hollywood Foreign Press will sometimes go after extremely successful comedies and musicals from quality and box office standpoints. This year could be “The Big Sick” and “Beauty and the Beast,” with Kumail Nanjiani, Holly Hunter (supporting), and Emma Watson benefiting with respective acting nominations.

But after that, since not as many comedies and musicals compete strongly in award season, the performances in these categories can often guide the Best Picture race. For instance, “The Disaster Artist” and “I, Tonya” will likely ride the coattails of the steam each of their starring actors, James Franco and Margot Robbie, have accrued and could find themselves nominated in the big category as well as the acting ones. Some possibilities that follow in that tradition could be “Battle of the Sexes,” riding on the backs of superstars Emma Stone and Steve Carell, both strong bets for acting nominations, or “Victoria and Abdul,” benefitting from Judi Dench’s reigning respect in the role of Queen Victoria. And as I said with “Beauty and the Beast” having a strong hand to play here, the Hollywood Foreign Press likes to reward musicals in these categories, which bodes well for “The Greatest Showman,” if not for Best Picture, then for Hugh Jackman’s mogul musical abilities as an acting contender.

These big categories differ slightly at the Screen Actors Guilds Awards in a typical year. The Hollywood Foreign Press only has a handful of voters, whereas many more vote at the SAG. This means earlier released films with broader release platforms typically do better. Sometimes actors who weren’t in serious contention for the Oscars or the Golden Globes pop up at SAG, like the surprise nominations of Helen Mirren in the “Woman in Gold” (benefited from earlier release date) and Emily Blunt in “The Girl on the Train” (Bigger film with wider release). However, due to the fact that the top five in each lead category has firmed up with a consensus top five, surprises may not abound in Male Actor (Oldman, Chamalet, Day-Lewis, Hanks, and Franco) and Female Actor (Streep, McDormand, Hawkins, Robbie, and Ronan) unless a film was too late sending screeners for voters to see (like “​The Post” or “Phantom Thread”).

If there are surprise nominations at SAG this year, expect them in the supporting races, which still have many unanswered questions to them and several actors vying for the top five spots. Several actors from the same films in competition with each other. SAG could help guide predictions as to whether the industry will support Michael Stuhlbarg or Armie Hammer for “Call Me By Your Name,” as well as Michael Shannon or Richard Jenkins for “The Shape of Water.” SAG will tell us whether the industry is ready to embrace Mary J. Blige’s breakout role in Netflix’s “Mudbound,” whether Octavia Spencer is being noticed for her work in “The Shape of Water,” or whether Melissa Leo’s “Novitiate” fizzled out or was remembered.


SAG’s Best Cast Ensemble race is such an interesting one because, often, there are some films that are voted in on the merit of their cast ensemble like “The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel,” as this award is designed. Other times, the voters treat it as their version of “Best Picture” and nominate something like “The Theory of Everything,” which didn’t have an ensemble as much as it did two actors. And this award, or being nominated for this award, is incredibly powerful. (Many believe because “La La Land” failed to earn a Cast Ensemble nomination last year, that was an early sign that it would go on to lose Best Picture.) If the action-heavy “Dunkirk” is nominated for the SAG ensemble award, that could be its ticket to winning Best Picture at the Oscars. Meanwhile if “Mudbound,” a film that was made to be nominated for this award, isn’t nominated, that could be used as evidence against the film’s Oscar chances in general.

Luckily for the sake of predictions, “​The Post,” “Lady Bird,” and “The Shape of Water,” three of the top Best Picture contenders, have ensembles stuffed with previous Oscar winners, veteran character actors, and television stars. But from there, SAG’s results will be telling. “Get Out” is the type of film that will really appeal to SAG voters, but it has an understated ensemble with not as many A-list names as other competing films. If “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” scores an ensemble nomination, it could signal industry support for a film whose buzz is questionable since it has entered wide release. Showings from “Darkest Hour,” and “Call Me By Your Name” could indicate those films have deeper beds of support that will allow them to jump over any hurdles they may have.

And now without any further adieu, here are the nomination predictions for the team over here at Next Best Picture:

GOLDEN GLOBE NOMINATION PREDICTIONS

BEST PICTURE – DRAMA
Call Me By Your Name (Matt, Michael, Ryan, Deann, Will)
​The Post (Matt, Michael, Ryan, Deann, Will)
The Shape Of Water (Matt, Michael, Ryan, Deann, Will)
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Matt, Michael, Ryan, Deann, Will)​
Dunkirk (Matt, Michael, Ryan, Will)
The Florida Project (Deann)

BEST PICTURE – COMEDY/MUSICAL
The Disaster Artist (Matt, Michael, Ryan, Deann, Will)
Get Out (Matt, Michael, Ryan, Deann, Will)
Lady Bird (Matt, Michael, Ryan, Deann, Will)
The Big Sick (Matt, Michael, Ryan, Deann)
I, Tonya (Michael, Deann, Will)
Beauty and the Beast (Matt, Ryan)
Battle of the Sexes (Will)

BEST DIRECTOR
Christopher Nolan – Dunkirk (Matt, Michael, Ryan, Deann, Will)
Steven Spielberg –
​The Post (Matt, Michael, Ryan, Deann, Will)
Guillermo del Toro –
The Shape Of Water (Matt, Michael, Ryan, Deann, Will)
Greta Gerwig –
Lady Bird (Matt, Ryan, Deann, Will)
Luca Guadagnino –
Call Me By Your Name (Michael, Ryan, Deann, Will)
Jordan Peele –
Get Out (Matt, Michael)

BEST ACTOR – DRAMA
Timothée Chalamet – Call Me By Your Name (Matt, Michael, Ryan, Deann, Will)
Daniel Day-Lewis – Phantom Thread (Matt, Michael, Ryan, Deann, Will)
Tom Hanks –
​The Post (Matt, Michael, Ryan, Deann, Will)
Gary Oldman –
Darkest Hour (Matt, Michael, Ryan, Deann, Will)
Jake Gyllenhaal –
Stronger (Matt, Michael, Will)
Christian Bale – Hostiles (Ryan)
Jeremy Renner – Wind River (Deann)

BEST ACTRESS – DRAMA
Sally Hawkins – The Shape Of Water (Matt, Michael, Ryan, Deann, Will)
Frances McDormand –
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Matt, Michael, Ryan, Deann, Will)
Meryl Streep –​ The Post (Matt, Michael, Ryan, Deann, Will)
Jessica Chastain – Molly’s Game (Matt, Michael, Deann, Will)
Annette Bening – Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool (Michael, Ryan, Will)
Jennifer Lawrence –
mother! (Matt, Deann, Ryan)​

BEST ACTOR – COMEDY/MUSICAL
James Franco – The Disaster Artist (Matt, Michael, Ryan, Deann, Will)
Daniel Kaluuya – Get Out (Matt, Michael, Ryan, Deann, Will)
Kumail Nanjiani – The Big Sick (Matt, Michael, Ryan, Deann, Will)
Steve Carrell – 
Battle of the Sexes (Matt, Ryan, Deann)
Hugh Jackman – The Greatest Showman (Michael, Ryan, Will)
Adam Sandler – The Meyerowitz Stories (Matt, Deann, Will)

Tom Cruise – American Made (Michael)

BEST ACTRESS – COMEDY/MUSICAL
Saoirse Ronan – Lady Bird (Matt, Michael, Ryan, Deann, Will)
Margot Robbie – I, Tonya (Matt, Michael, Ryan, Deann, Will)
Emma Stone – Battle of the Sexes (Matt, Michael, Ryan, Deann, Will)
Judi Dench – Victoria and Abdul (Matt, Michael, Ryan, Will)
Emma Watson – Beauty and the Beast (Matt, Ryan, Will)
Selma Hayek – Beatriz At Dinner (Michael)
Aubrey Plaza –Ingrid Goes West (Deann)
​Zoe Kazan – The Big Sick (Deann)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Willem Dafoe – The Florida Project (Matt, Michael, Ryan, Deann, Will)
Armie Hammer – Call Me By Your Name (Matt, Michael, Ryan, Deann, Will)
Sam Rockwell –
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Matt, Michael, Ryan, Deann, Will)
Richard Jenkins – The Shape Of Water (Michael, Deann, Will)
Idris Elba –
Molly’s Game (Matt, Deann)
Christopher Plummer – All The Money In The World (Matt, Ryan)
Michael Stuhlbarg –
Call Me By Your Name (Michael, Will)
Jason Mitchell –
Mudbound (Ryan)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Holly Hunter – The Big Sick (Matt, Michael, Ryan, Deann, Will)
Allison Janney – I, Tonya (Matt, Michael, Ryan, Deann, Will)
Laurie Metcalf – Lady Bird (Matt, Michael, Ryan, Deann, Will)
Mary J. Blige – Mudbound (Matt, Michael, Ryan, Will)
Tiffany Haddish – Girl’s Trip (Matt, Deann, Will)
Melissa Leo – Novitiate (Ryan)
Lesley Manville –
Phantom Thread (Deann)
Octavia Spencer – The Shape Of Water (Michael)

BEST SCREENPLAY
Get Out (Matt, Michael, Ryan, Deann, Will)
Lady Bird (Matt, Michael, Ryan, Deann, Will)
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Matt, Michael, Ryan, Deann, Will)
Call Me By Your Name (Michael, Ryan, Will)
The Shape Of Water (Matt, Ryan, Deann)
The Big Sick (Michael, Deann)
Molly’s Game (Matt, Will)

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Darkest Hour (Matt, Michael, Deann, Will)
Dunkirk (Matt, Michael, Ryan, Deann, Will)
Phantom Thread (Matt, Michael, Deann, Will)
The Shape Of Water (Matt, Michael, Ryan, Deann, Will)
​The Post (Matt, Michael, Ryan, Deann)
Blade Runner 2049 (Ryan)
Coco (Will)
Victoria and Abdul (Ryan)

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Evermore – Beauty and the Beast (Matt, Michael, Ryan, Deann, Will)
This Is Me – The Greatest Showman (Matt, Michael, Ryan, Deann, Will)
Remember Me – Coco (Matt, Michael, Ryan, Deann)
Mystery Of Love – Call Me By Your Name (Ryan, Deann, Will)
You Shouldn’t Look At Me That Way – Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool (Matt, Michael, Will)
I Don’t Wanna Live Forever – Fifty Shades Darker (Michael, Will)
Mighty River – Mudbound (Matt, Deann)

Never Forget – Murder On The Orient Express (Ryan)

BEST ANIMATED FILM
The Breadwinner (Matt, Michael, Ryan, Deann, Will)
Coco (Matt, Michael, Ryan, Deann, Will)
Ferdinand (Matt, Michael, Ryan, Deann, Will)
The Lego Batman Movie 
(Matt, Michael, Ryan, Deann, Will)
The Boss Baby (Matt, Deann, Will)

Loving Vincent (Michael, Ryan)

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
First They Killed My Father (Matt, Michael, Ryan, Deann, Will)
BPM (Beats Per Minute) (Matt, Michael, Ryan, Deann, Will)
A Fantastic Woman (Matt, Michael, Deann, Will)
In The Fade (Matt, Michael, Will)
The Square (Matt, Deann, Will)
Foxtrot (Ryan, Deann)

The Insult (Michael, Will)
Loveless (Will)
Thelma (Ryan)
Tom of Finland (Ryan)


​SAG AWARDS NOMINATION PREDICTIONS

BEST ENSEMBLE
Mudbound (Matt, Michael, Ryan, Deann, Will)
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Matt, Michael, Ryan, Deann, Will)
Lady Bird (Matt, Michael, Ryan, Deann, Will)
​The Post (Matt, Michael, Ryan, Will)
Call Me By Your Name (Deann, Will)
The Shape Of Water (Michael, Deann)
The Florida Project (Matt)
Get Out (Ryan)

BEST LEAD ACTOR (MALE)
Timothée Chalamet – Call Me By Your Name (Matt, Michael, Ryan, Deann, Will)
Daniel Day-Lewis – Phantom Thread (Matt, Michael, Ryan, Deann, Will)
Gary Oldman – Darkest Hour (Matt, Michael, Ryan, Deann, Will)
James Franco – The Disaster Artist (Michael, Ryan, Deann)
Tom Hanks –
​The Post (Michael, Ryan, Will)
Daniel Kaluuya –
Get Out (Deann, Will)
Jake Gyllenhaal –
Stronger (Matt)
​James McAvoy – Split (Matt)

BEST LEAD ACTOR (FEMALE)
Sally Hawkins – The Shape Of Water (Matt, Michael, Ryan, Deann)
Frances McDormand – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Matt, Michael, Ryan, Deann, Will)
Margot Robbie – I, Tonya (Matt, Michael, Ryan, Deann, Will)
Saoirse Ronan – Lady Bird (Matt, Michael, Ryan, Deann, Will)
Meryl Streep –
​The Post (Matt, Michael, Ryan, Deann, Will)
Annette Bening – Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool (Will)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR (MALE)
Willem Dafoe – The Florida Project (Matt, Michael, Ryan, Deann, Will)
Sam Rockwell – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Matt, Michael, Ryan, Deann, Will)
Armie Hammer – Call Me By Your Name (Michael, Ryan, Deann, Will)
Richard Jenkins – The Shape Of Water (Matt, Michael, Ryan, Will)
Michael Stuhlbarg –
Call Me By Your Name (Matt, Ryan, Deann)
Jason Mitchell – Mudbound (Michael, Deann)
Patrick Stewart – Logan (Matt, Will)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR (FEMALE)
Holly Hunter – The Big Sick (Matt, Michael, Ryan, Deann, Will)
Allison Janney – I, Tonya (Matt, Michael, Ryan, Deann, Will)
Laurie Metcalf – Lady Bird (Matt, Michael, Ryan, Deann, Will)
Mary J. Blige – Mudbound (Michael, Ryan, Deann, Will)
Tiffany Hadish – Girl’s Trip (Matt, Deann, Will)
Octavia Spencer – 
The Shape Of Water (Michael, Ryan)
Melissa Leo – Novitiate (Matt)

What are your expectations about the Golden Globes and the Screen Actor’s Guilds? Which films do you think will fare better than others? Do you agree with our picks? Be sure to enter into our contest to predict the nominations for both awards here (Deadline is 11:59pm Sunday night) Let us know in the comments below. ​​​​​

You can follow Ryan and hear more of his thoughts on the Oscars and Film on Twitter at @RyanCShowers

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