This time last year, Broadway fans and Tony obsessives were overwhelmed by the abundance of riches the 2024-25 season offered. The same definitely can’t be said for this season. The pickings are slimmer when it comes to objective quantity, and depending on who you talk to, the overall quality of this season isn’t too high either. Still, there are performers and creatives worth celebrating even in the weakest of seasons, so let’s take a look at what the Tony nominations may look like before they’re announced on Tuesday, May 5th.
Best Musical
The Lost Boys
Schmigadoon!
Titanique
Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)
In each category, I like to include an alternate pick for a contender that stands a chance at a nomination outside my predicted slate. But with Best Musical this year, I’m not even bothering. Because only six new musicals premiered on Broadway this season, there will only be four Best Musical nominees (this marks the first time Best Musical has had fewer than five nominees since the shortened COVID season of 2021-22). Besides my predicted four, the only other two contenders are the already-infamous, long-closed Kristin Chenoweth flop vehicle “The Queen of Versailles” and the poorly reviewed stage version of “Beaches.” Neither stands a chance at a nomination–I’d bet a sum larger than the budget of “The Lost Boys” on that.
Best Play
The Balusters
Giant
Liberation
Little Bear Ridge Road
Alt: Punch
With another thin selection of contenders, Best Play will also have only four nominees. And these four predicted should feel fairly secure about nominations. The starry stage versions of “Dog Day Afternoon” (featuring Jon Bernthal and Ebon Moss-Bachrach) and “The Fear of 13” (starring Adrien Brody and Tessa Thompson) are both doing decent business at the box office, but critics were less impressed than audiences. The Tonys have a history of snubbing moderately reviewed hits starring celebrities, which was bad news last season for Robert Downey Jr. (“McNeal”) and George Clooney (“Good Night, and Good Luck”).
Best Revival of a Musical
Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Ragtime
The Rocky Horror Show
Alt: Chess
Another easy-to-call category. Unless the Tony nominating committee is full of ABBA superfans, the long-awaited revival of “Chess” is likely to be checkmated, since this category has only three nomination slots.
Best Revival of a Play
Becky Shaw
Bug
Death of a Salesman
Joe Turner’s Come and Gone
Oedipus
Alt: Fallen Angels
And here we come to what is, by far, the most difficult to call of the four top production categories. Unlike the other three races, there are an abundance of contenders to choose from, with a comparatively whopping 11 eligible play revivals. The fact that the high-profile mountings of “Every Brilliant Thing” (a one-man show centered around Daniel Radcliffe), “Marjorie Prime” (featuring Danny Burstein, Cynthia Nixon, and June Squibb), and “Proof” (starring Ayo Edebiri and Don Cheadle) are possibly on the outside looking in speaks to the strength of this category.
Best Actress in a Musical
Sara Chase – Schmigadoon!
Stephanie Hsu – The Rocky Horror Show
Caissie Levy – Ragtime
Marla Mindelle – Titanique
Christiani Pitts – Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)
Alt: Lea Michele – Chess
A last-minute eligibility announcement surprisingly moved “The Rocky Horror Show’s” Brad and Janet (Andrew Durand and Stephanie Hsu, respectively) from their expected spots in the featured categories and instead designated them as leads. This is great news for fans of the Oscar-nominated Hsu, who returns to her Broadway roots this season, but might be an unwelcome development for Gleeks who were hoping Lea Michele might finally score her first Tony nomination. Of course, there’s still a chance she may Rachel Berry her way into the category, likely at Sara Chase’s expense.
Best Actor in a Musical
Nicholas Christopher – Chess
Luke Evans – The Rocky Horror Show
Joshua Henry – Ragtime
Sam Tutty – Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)
Brandon Uranowitz – Ragtime
Alt: Andrew Durand – The Rocky Horror Show
Andrew Durand’s 11th-hour switcheroo increased this category’s eligible performances from eight to nine, meaning it’ll now have five nominees instead of the previously expected four. Unfortunately, Durand is unlikely to benefit from this, as the quintet of predicted nominees feels pretty set. And it would be hard to complain about such a strong line-up.
Best Actress in a Play
Rose Byrne – Fallen Angels
Carrie Coon – Bug
Susannah Flood – Liberation
Lesley Manville – Oedipus
Laurie Metcalf – Little Bear Ridge Road
Alt: Anika Noni Rose – The Balusters
This category’s eventual winner is hard to call at this point, but the nomination roster feels pretty predictable. In addition to the six listed ladies, keep an eye out for Rose Byrne’s “Fallen Angels“ co-star Kelli O’Hara; astoundingly, if she misses a nomination this year, it will be the first time that has happened for an eligible performance of hers since her first nomination for “The Light in the Piazza“ over 20 years ago.
Best Actor in a Play
Nathan Lane – Death of a Salesman
John Lithgow – Giant
Daniel Radcliffe – Every Brilliant Thing
Namir Smallwood – Bug
Mark Strong – Oedipus
Alt: Will Harrison – Punch
This category has the potential to be full of Tony favorites. Nathan Lane and John Lithgow have both won multiple times, and Daniel Radcliffe recently got his long-overdue trophy for “Merrily We Roll Along.“ Mark Strong is also a previous nominee. And then there’s Namir Smallwood, who delivered a well-received, intense performance in the revival of “Bug.“The Steppenwolf member’s only previous Broadway credit is 2021’s “Pass Over,“ but he has the chance to be the newcomer nominee in this sea of veterans.
Best Featured Actress in a Musical
Shoshana Bean – The Lost Boys
Ana Gasteyer – Schmigadoon!
McKenzie Kurtz – Shmigadoon!
Nichelle Lewis – Ragtime
“Tempress“ Chasity Moore – Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Alt: Melissa Barrera – Titanique
Shoshana Bean has become an expected name in this category, with two previous nominations since Broadway reopened in 2021. She’ll likely hear her name called again this year, this time for the big-budget vampire musical “The Lost Boys.“On the other hand, Ana Gasteyer is long overdue for her first Tony nomination. And then there are a pair of performers reviving roles that the Tonys have previously awarded: Nichelle Lewis as Sarah in “Ragtime“ and “Tempress“ Chasity Moore as Grizabella in “Cats: The Jellicle Ball.“ Both get a singular, showstopping song in their respective shows, and that just may be enough to score them nominations.
Best Featured Actor in a Musical
Ali Louis Bourzgui – The Lost Boys
André De Shields – Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Jim Parsons – Titanique
Ben Levi Ross – Ragtime
Layton Williams – Titanique
Alt: Bryce Pinkham – Chess
This one is tricky. “Cats: The Jellicle Ball“ has enough notable contenders to fill out this category entirely, including Sydney James Harcourt, Junior LaBeija, and Primo Thee Ballerino, among others. But expect theatre legend André De Shields to follow up his “Hadestown“ win with another nomination for his performance as Old Deuteronomy, the esteemed figurehead of the titular ball. Ali Louis Bourzgui was bizarrely snubbed for his leading performance in “The Who’s Tommy“ two seasons ago, and his turn as the vampire cult leader of “The Lost Boys“ has a decent chance at bringing him a nomination. And Jim Parsons gets a stand-out turn as Rose’s mother in the off-the-wall “Titanique,“ which may net the stage veteran his second nod. But much like the legendary ship itself, this category’s contenders should watch out for the Iceberg, played by Layton Williams, who previously won an Olivier Award for the same part.
Best Featured Actress in a Play
Betsy Aidem – Liberation
Aya Cash – Giant
Laurie Metcalf – Death of a Salesman
June Squibb – Marjorie Prime
Kara Young – Proof
Alt: Cynthia Nixon – Marjorie Prime
Best Featured Actor in a Play
Christopher Abbott – Death of a Salesman
Richard Thomas – The Balusters
Elliot Levey – Giant
Ruben Santiago-Hudson – Joe Turner’s Come and Gone
Charlie Thurston – Liberation
Alt: Alden Ehrenreich – Becky Shaw
Thanks to the large number of contending revivals, both featured performance categories for plays are stuffed with potential nominees. There are plenty of opportunities for surprises, and I wouldn’t be shocked if only one or two of my predictions come true in each category. The only things that seem likely are that Laurie Metcalf will score two acting nominations this year and that Kara Young will continue her extraordinary streak, as a nomination for “Proof“ would be her fifth consecutive nod in this category (she also won the past two years in a row).
Best Direction of a Musical
Michael Arden – The Lost Boys
Lear DeBessonet – Ragtime
Christopher Gattelli – Schmigadoon!
Tim Jackson – Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)
Zhailon Levingston and Bill Rauch – Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Alt: Sam Pinkleton – The Rocky Horror Show
Tony Award favorite Michael Arden will likely follow up his victory for last year’s “Maybe Happy Ending“ with his fifth nomination (as an interesting note, he also directed “The Queen of Versailles“ this season). Lear DeBessonet and Christopher Gattelli are both contending for follow-up nominations following their recent category debuts for “Into the Woods“ and “Death Becomes Her,“ respectively. However, a trio of lesser-known names is very likely closer to ultimate victory: Tim Jackson for “Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)“ and Zhailon Levingston and Bill Rauch for “Cats: The Jellicle Ball.”
Best Direction of a Play
David Cromer – Bug
Nicholas Hytner – Giant
Robert Icke – Oedipus
Joe Mantello – Death of a Salesman
Whitney White – Liberation
Alt: Trip Cullman – Becky Shaw
I’m basically throwing my hands in the air with this category. As usual, it’s best to assemble a mix of directors of well-regarded first-run and revivals of plays, which is exactly what I’ve done. Good luck to all of us, directors and predictors alike!
Best Original Score
Beaches
The Lost Boys
Schmigadoon!
Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)
The Queen of Versailles
Alt: Death of a Salesman
At the very last minute, the nominating committee determined that the score to “Schmigadoon!“ would, somewhat surprisingly, be eligible. This means that the five nomination slots don’t necessarily have to include music for a non-musical play, as there are now exactly five musicals in contention. Therefore, the Tony nominators will have to go out of their way to exclude the poorly-regarded scores of “Beaches“ and “The Queen of Versailles.“ While it may seem bizarre for them to do so, they’ve made such a choice before, as in the infamous 2020 COVID Tonys, which featured five plays in this category, leaving out the musical version of “The Lightning Thief.”
Best Book of a Musical
The Lost Boys
Schmigadoon!
Titanique
Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)
Alt: Chess
Expect this category to perfectly mirror Best Musical. The only hiccup may be if Danny Strong’s new book for “Chess“makes it in, although with how divisive the script is, that seems unlikely.
Best Choreography
Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Chess
The Lost Boys
The Rocky Horror Show
Schmigadoon!
Alt: Ragtime
Given how essential the dazzling ballroom choreography of Omari Wiles and Arturo Lyons is to the success of “Cats: The Jellicle Ball,“ the pair’s eventual victory in this category seems all but locked. That is, unless the aerial effects of “The Lost Boys“ can take a bite out of their chances (even those with lesser opinions about the show were won over by Lauren Yalango-Grant and Christopher Cree Grant’s vampiric flying choreography).
Are you excited for the 2026 Tony Awards? What are you predicting will be nominated tomorrow? Please let us know in the comments section below or on our X account.
