Currently, the show everyone can’t stop talking about is Netflix’s “Baby Reindeer.” The semi-autobiographical dark comedy brought to life by creator and star Richard Gadd has captivated audiences everywhere. So far, it’s one of the most critically praised series of the year. With Emmy campaigning now in full swing, people are wondering if the series has been released early enough to make a lasting impression on Emmy voters. At this point in the awards season, how much – and how long – will the momentum carry? Let’s look at how “Baby Reindeer” can impact this year’s limited series race and possibly win the Best Limited Series, Anthology, or TV Movie Emmy.
As the lead of “Baby Reindeer,” Gadd looks to jump his way to the top of the contenders for Best Actor in a Limited Series. His performance is easily one of the most talked-about aspects of the series, and he’s utterly captivating. Gadd’s only real competition is Jon Hamm, long considered the frontrunner for the latest iteration of “Fargo.” Hamm, a previous Emmy winner, delivered his best performance since the end of “Mad Men” and is involved with a series that the Television Academy has regularly showered with recognition. That being said, there’s something that just feels right about Gadd winning, which would boost “Baby Reindeer’s” chances of winning Best Limited Series. There’s genuine passion behind his performance and that adoration can carry him to win over names like Hamm, “Feud’s” Tom Hollander, and “Shōgun’s” Hiroyuki Sanada.
In the Supporting Actress in a Limited Series category, “Baby Reindeer” can score two nominees with Jessica Gunning and Nava Mau. In terms of winning, there’s no reason why Gunning doesn’t leapfrog every contender to reach frontrunner status. This year’s limited supporting actress category feels incredibly weak, with people predicting Kali Reis of “True Detective: Night Country” to win. There is also a possibility for Sandra Oh of “The Sympathizer” to win here, as many consider her overdue for an Emmy. The biggest obstacle for Oh is that few people besides dedicated audiences are talking about “The Sympathizer,” and it seems that the series is only a threat for Robert Downey Jr. to win Best Supporting Actor. Gunning, who plays obsessive stalker Martha Scott on “Baby Reindeer,” delivers a spellbinding performance over which everyone is obsessing over. It works in her favor that Netflix is campaigning her in supporting actress (which is debatably category fraud) because this means she avoids going up against solid competition in the lead actress category, such as Jodie Foster (“True Detective: Night Country”) and Brie Larson (“Lessons in Chemistry”).
When it comes to writing and directing categories, “Baby Reindeer” could earn multiple nominations for each. While it’ll be tough to win in either category due to tough competition, it wouldn’t be surprising for the series to win one of those categories. Although, it feels like “Baby Reindeer” has a better chance of winning an Emmy for writing than for directing. Gadd used his own trauma and turned it into an incredibly honest experience that only he could have brought to life. Also, how the story evolves feels like something you couldn’t even make up. This win would resemble Michaela Coel’s for “I May Destroy You.” Both series are considered writerly and told through the perspective of protagonists experiencing similar situations. For “Baby Reindeer,” a win for directing is more challenging to pull off when going up against heavy-hitting contenders like “Shōgun” and “Fargo.” “Shōgun” will most likely dominate in terms of nominations – and possibly wins – in the craft categories, and the direction is outstanding. This year, there could be a split instead of one series sweeping both writing and directing.
If “Baby Reindeer” wins multiple acting awards alongside writing, there’s no reason why it wouldn’t also take Best Limited Series. It could sweep all the categories for which it could potentially earn nominations. Another possibility is that the series only wins lead acting and writing since Gadd is the face of “Baby Reindeer.” Netflix needs to dedicate its efforts primarily toward “Baby Reindeer,” should they wish to pull this off. If the streamer tries to have another series, like “Ripley,” earn nominations, this could come at “Baby Reindeer’s” expense. Also, the love for “Shōgun” is genuine and, as of now, is the frontrunner for Best Limited Series. “Shōgun” could pull a “Queen’s Gambit” and win only Best Limited Series and Best Directing in a Limited Series, while “Baby Reindeer” cleans up in other categories. At this point, Netflix must capitalize on the momentum.
Do you think “Baby Reindeer” will make a splash at the Emmys this year? Is it too late for the series to make an impact in the Limited Series races? Will it be able to defeat “Shōgun’” for Best Limited Series? Please let us know in the comments section below or on Next Best Picture’s Twitter account. Be sure to also check out our Next Best Series Podcast throughout the Emmy season and our latest Emmy predictions here.
