Wednesday, June 26, 2024

How Animated Sequels Perform At The Oscars And What This Means For “Inside Out 2”

Inside Out” left a big legacy for itself in 2015, as that year’s Best Animated Feature Oscar winner and as a film that arguably should have made the Best Picture category, too. It might be a minor miracle if “Inside Out 2” is thought of that way, though we won’t know until its release on June 14th. But even if no one makes a Best Picture campaign for it, repeating its predecessor’s success as a Best Animated Feature winner should be more within reach – or maybe not, considering the history of animated sequels in that category.

The Best Animated Feature category is entering its 24th year in 2004; in that history, only two sequels have ever won. Both were from Pixar, but both were also “Toy Story” sequels, with “Toy Story 3” winning in 2010 and “Toy Story 4” winning in 2019. Other than that, high-profile sequels like “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse,” “Shrek 2,” “Kung Fu Panda 2,” “Despicable Me 2,” “Ralph Breaks the Internet,” both “How to Train Your Dragon” sequels, both “Puss in Boots” spin-offs from the “Shrek” universe, and “Incredibles 2” have all been defeated on Oscar night.

Sequels generally have an uphill battle with the Oscars since “The Godfather: Part II” is the only one to win Best Picture, and only a select collection of sequels have ever been nominated there. In that context, the sequel drought in Best Animated Feature isn’t so bad, especially since two have won that category instead of just one. Nonetheless, since they were both from the same legendary franchise, there are asterisks to consider.

Toy Story 3” was a special exception since it was the last animated film nominated for Best Picture. Winning Best Animated Feature was an inevitable consolation prize, which no one argued about since they assumed it was the final farewell to Woody, Buzz, and company. Yet they returned anyway for “Toy Story 4,” which didn’t crack the Best Picture category but still won Best Animated Feature again as another consolation.

Still, perhaps the “Toy Story” legacy did more heavy lifting that time, especially since it only had to beat smaller movies like “How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World,” “Missing Link,” “Klaus,” and “I Lost My Body.” It was also Pixar’s last billion-dollar grossing movie to date, as the pandemic, Disney+, and various other factors have put the company in harder times since then.

For that reason and others, “Inside Out 2” is pegged as a comeback movie for Pixar and a chance to recapture its Golden Age. However, other than the “Toy Story” movies, Pixar has had a spotty record with such sequels, which is also reflected in Best Animated Feature. Beyond the wins for the “Toy Story” sequels, there has also been “Incredibles 2” losing the 2018 Oscar to “Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse,” while other franchise films like “Finding Dory,” the “Cars” sequels, “Lightyear,” and “Monsters University” weren’t even nominated.Those results are still drops in the bucket of Best Animated Feature history since Pixar has won that Oscar a whopping 11 times in 23 years. Yet it hasn’t won in the last three years, which is actually the longest drought in Pixar history. By those standards, Pixar is pretty overdue to win again, although other standards are still working against it, such as “Inside Out 2.”

One of those standards probably won’t be box office since “Inside Out 2” is projected to have the biggest opening weekend of 2024, let alone this summer. But review scores are a much higher bar, especially since “Inside Out” had a 94 on Metacritic and an average rating of 8.9 on Rotten Tomatoes. On that note, “Inside Out 2” isn’t off to a joyful start, with a mere 74 on Metacritic after its first 35 reviews and a 7.3 Rotten Tomatoes average after 74 reviews. If those scores don’t get higher, it will put this sequel below “Toy Story 4’s” 84 on MetaCritic and 8.3 RT average, “Incredibles 2” ‘s 80 on MetaCritic and 7.9 RT average, and even “Finding Dory’s” 77 on MetaCritic and 7.7 RT average.

That alone may not be disqualifying for “Inside Out 2,” at least in winning Best Animated Feature. But it does mean it can’t depend on the Pixar and “Inside Out” brand names alone to get the job done – especially if a more highly acclaimed summer sequel with a significant brand name and big box office couldn’t get it done last year.

The 2023 Animated Feature race alone proved how hard it can be for even a monster hit sequel to win this Oscar. “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” is a sequel that really did match the acclaim of its Oscar-winning predecessor, it was a summer box office hit that surpassed “Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse” and won most of the major precursors going into Oscar night. Nevertheless, Hayao Miyazaki’s supposed final film “The Boy and the Heron” stayed on its toes all season long and finally pulled off the mild upset, proving that a big franchise name, massive acclaim, and enormous box office isn’t always enough in this category – although it was enough for the previous Spider-Verse film.

Bias against sequels probably wasn’t a conscious reason voters went for “The Boy and the Heron” instead. Yet since “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” already had a predecessor that won an Oscar, and since another sequel in “Spider-Man: Beyond the Spider-Verse” is coming in 2025 anyway, maybe some voters figured they could always wait to honor that series again – whereas there might not be another chance to honor Miyazaki.

Someone like Miyazaki probably isn’t coming to challenge “Inside Out 2” this year, though. With the exception of DreamWorks and Chris Sanders’ “The Wild Robot,” the most high-profile competition for Best Animated Feature so far is more sequels like “Moana 2,” “Despicable Me 4,” and “Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl,” along with the “Lord of the Rings” animated offshoot “The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim” and the “Transformers” offshoot “Transformers One.” So unless “The Wild Robot” steals voters’ hearts, or an original film from another studio or country breaks out, maybe a big franchise film will win Best Animated Feature this time, if only by default.

Inside Out 2” certainly had the first big shot to set the bar for the competition, like “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” seemed to do this time last year. Yet while that film was the second part of a planned trilogy from a trusted team headed by Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, “Inside Out 2” had more skepticism around it even before reviews came in, given Pixar and Disney’s shaky reputation lately and Pixar’s supposed desire for “cash grab” sequels as a solution.
Despite the promise of new emotions guiding and/or breaking Riley as she becomes a teenager, and with the still rose-colored and teary memories of “Inside Out,” many wondered if this was a sequel that could fully justify its existence beyond box office and extending IP – and it seems some who saw it are still wondering. “Toy Story 3” and arguably “Toy Story 4” answered this challenge. Still, the likes of “Monsters University,” “Finding Dory,” “Cars 2,” “Cars 3,” “Lightyear,” and even “Incredibles 2” already showed it’s not always that easy for Pixar to strike gold again.

With allegations that Pixar is more concerned with making “mass appeal” sequels and reboots in the future instead of more original and “personal” movies like “Turning Red,” “Luca,” and “Elemental,” faith in the current leadership’s creative priorities is not very high right now. As such, if “Inside Out 2” does validate this new strategy at the box office and with another animated Oscar – if not with all critics – it may do more harm than good in the long term for Pixar’s future.

Regardless, such success would still give the “Inside Out” franchise the closest thing to a “Toy Story“-like legacy, especially if it becomes the second animated franchise with two Best Animated Feature Oscars. Or maybe it would just prove Tony Hale is a lucky charm since he was also a new cast member in “Toy Story 4“—though there, he voiced a new character in Forky instead of replacing Bill Hader as “Inside Out’s” Fear.

There are many reasons why “Inside Out 2” has an uphill battle to match what “Inside Out” did nine summers ago – and maybe the least of them is what “Inside Out” did at the Oscars eight springs ago. Yet, depending on future word of mouth and what kind of competition lies ahead in the next six months, it can still have a real shot at doing what every non- “Toy Story” animated sequel has failed to do at the last 23 Oscars. But depending on how much this sequel matches or doesn’t match the original and how the rest of the animated field looks in 2024, a historic Oscar win might still bring up some mixed emotions.

Do you think “Inside Out 2” will be nominated for Best Animated Feature? Do you think it will win? Please let us know in the comments section below or on Next Best Picture’s Twitter account.

You can follow Robert and hear more of his thoughts on the Oscars & Film on Twitter at @Robertdoc1984

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